Luton 1-2 Burnley
Key numbers
- Possession 49% – 51%
- Shots 18 (3 on target) – 14 (4)
- Decisive moment: 85' Jacob Bruun Larsen, FN xPts +1.7
Elijah Adebayo 84'
HT 0:1
Lyle Foster 45+2'
Jacob Bruun Larsen 85'
Jacob Bruun Larsen 85'
Luton 17th · 4 pts|Burnley 19th → 18th · 4 pts
Luton edged xG (1.34–1.11) but Burnley took the win.
Player of the matchSander BergeDecisive moment85' Jacob Bruun Larsen+1.7
Player of the match
Sander Berge Strong
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 7.4 (Strong)
Game state
Luton ahead 0 min · level 46 min · Burnley ahead 44 min
- Reece Burke — off the bench 69 min · 0G 1A
- Elijah Adebayo — off the bench 28 min · 1G 0A
- Jacob Bruun Larsen — off the bench 16 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
45+2'
Lyle Foster
Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist Sander Berge +0.3
+1.1
84'
Elijah Adebayo
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Reece Burke +0.3
+1.0
85'
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Goal · scorer +1.2 · assist Connor Roberts +0.5
+1.7
Luton
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −1.8Time effect −0.5→ League points won 0
Burnley
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +2.8Opponent moments −1.7Time effect +0.5→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
LutonBurnley
49%Possession51%
1.34Expected goals (xG)1.11
0.07xG per shot0.08
18Shots14
3Shots on target4
17%Shots on target %29%
15Shots in box7
370Passes412
69%Pass accuracy72%
7Corners6
2Saves1
14Fouls6
4Yellow cards2
3Offsides3
Compared with usual
Luton
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.9 | |
| xG | 1.34 | 0.94 | |
| xG against | 1.11 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 18 | 12.1 | |
| On target | 3 | 2.8 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 14.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.08 | |
| Possession | 49% | 42.5% | |
| Passes | 370 | 364.6 | |
| Pass accuracy | 69% | 72.9% | |
| Corners | 7 | 6.1 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 11.1 |
Burnley
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.9 | |
| xG | 1.11 | 0.59 | |
| xG against | 1.34 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 14 | 10.9 | |
| On target | 4 | 3.3 | |
| Shots faced | 18 | 13.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.06 | |
| Possession | 51% | 53.3% | |
| Passes | 412 | 529.3 | |
| Pass accuracy | 72% | 84.5% | low |
| Corners | 6 | 6.1 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 12 |
Timeline
- 21' Sub Amari'i Bell → Reece Burke
- 36' Yellow Jacob Brown
- 45+2' Goal Lyle Foster league goal #3 assist Sander Berge
- 59' Yellow Reece Burke
- 62' Sub Issa Kaboré → Elijah Adebayo
- 66' Yellow Connor Roberts
- 69' Sub Jacob Brown → Tahith Chong
- 74' Sub Luca Koleosho → Jacob Bruun Larsen
- 74' Sub Zeki Amdouni → Aaron Ramsey
- 80' Sub Lyle Foster → Jay Rodriguez
- 84' Goal Elijah Adebayo league goal #1 assist Reece Burke
- 85' Goal Jacob Bruun Larsen league goal #1 assist Connor Roberts
- 90+2' Yellow Tahith Chong
- 90+3' Yellow Marvelous Nakamba
- 90+3' Sub Aaron Ramsey → Hannes Delcroix
- 90+4' Yellow Charlie Taylor
Category leaders
- Key passesAlfie Doughty7
- Duels wonCarlton Morris14/24
- DribblesCarlton Morris3/4
- Defensive actionsTeden Mengi7
- ShotsJacob Brown3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonJosh Cullen5
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.