Nottingham Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Key numbers
- Possession 27% – 73%
- Shots 5 (3 on target) – 13 (3)
- Decisive moment: 5' Ola Aina, FN xPts +0.8
Ola Aina 5'
Orel Mangala 47'
Orel Mangala 47'
HT 1:0
Nottingham Forest 16th → 12th · 13 pts|Aston Villa 5th · 22 pts
Aston Villa edged xG (0.38–1.23) but Nottingham Forest took the win.
Player of the matchHarry ToffoloDecisive moment5' Ola Aina+0.8
Player of the match
Harry Toffolo Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.6 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 85 min · level 5 min · Aston Villa ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
5'
Ola Aina
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Harry Toffolo +0.2
+0.8
47'
Orel Mangala
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Harry Toffolo +0.2
+0.5
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +1.3Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.3→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestAston Villa
27%Possession73%
0.38Expected goals (xG)1.23
0.08xG per shot0.09
5Shots13
3Shots on target3
60%Shots on target %23%
2Shots in box11
240Passes654
72%Pass accuracy91%
0Corners10
3Saves1
6Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
9Offsides1
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
11 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 0.38 | 1 | |
| xG against | 1.23 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 5 | 10.8 | low |
| On target | 3 | 3.2 | |
| Shots faced | 13 | 13.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 27% | 39.3% | |
| Passes | 240 | 362.5 | |
| Pass accuracy | 72% | 75.8% | |
| Corners | 0 | 3.7 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 11.5 |
Aston Villa
16 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2.6 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 1.23 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 0.38 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 13 | 15.6 | |
| On target | 3 | 6.2 | |
| Shots faced | 5 | 9.4 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 73% | 56.8% | |
| Passes | 654 | 507.3 | high |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 86.4% | |
| Corners | 10 | 5.9 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 11.3 |
Timeline
- 5' Goal Ola Aina league goal #1 assist Harry Toffolo
- 46' Sub Nicolò Zaniolo → Leon Bailey
- 47' Goal Orel Mangala league goal #1 assist Harry Toffolo
- 59' Sub Matty Cash → Youri Tielemans
- 64' Yellow Boubacar Kamara
- 71' Sub Harry Toffolo → Serge Aurier
- 78' Sub Boubacar Kamara → Diego Carlos
- 82' Sub Taiwo Awoniyi → Danilo
- 86' Sub Ola Aina → Neco Williams
- 86' Sub Douglas Luiz → Leander Dendoncker
- 87' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Ryan Yates
- 88' Yellow Danilo
Category leaders
- Key passesLucas Digne4
- Duels wonNicolás Domínguez10/18
- DribblesEzri Konsa2/2
- Defensive actionsMoussa Niakhaté8
- ShotsNicolás Domínguez3 (on target 1)
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.