Nottingham Forest 2-3 Brighton
Key numbers
- Possession 47% – 53%
- Shots 18 (5 on target) – 11 (5)
- Decisive moment: 45+4' João Pedro, FN xPts +0.9
Anthony Elanga 3'
Morgan Gibbs-White 76' (pen)
Morgan Gibbs-White 76' (pen)
HT 1:2
Evan Ferguson 26'
João Pedro 45+4'
João Pedro 58' (pen)
João Pedro 45+4'
João Pedro 58' (pen)
Nottingham Forest 15th · 13 pts|Brighton 8th → 6th · 22 pts
Nottingham Forest edged xG (1.93–1.48) but Brighton took the win.
Player of the matchPascal GroßDecisive moment45+4' João Pedro+0.9
Player of the match
Pascal Groß Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.8 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 23 min · level 22 min · Brighton ahead 45 min
- Brighton: Red card 73' → ~17 min a player down
- João Pedro — off the bench 69 min · 2G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
3'
Anthony Elanga
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.2
+0.7
26'
Evan Ferguson
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Pascal Groß +0.2
+0.7
45+4'
João Pedro
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Pascal Groß +0.3
+0.9
58'
João Pedro
Pen goal
+0.5
73'
Lewis Dunk
Red card
−0.1
76'
Morgan Gibbs-White
Pen goal
+0.3
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −1.9Time effect −0.4→ League points won 0
Brighton
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +2.0Opponent moments −1.2Time effect +0.8→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestBrighton
47%Possession53%
1.93Expected goals (xG)1.48
0.11xG per shot0.13
18Shots11
5Shots on target5
28%Shots on target %45%
14Shots in box7
465Passes551
82%Pass accuracy87%
6Corners4
2Saves3
12Fouls7
2Yellow cards5
0Offsides0
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
13 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 1.93 | 1 | |
| xG against | 1.48 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 18 | 10.3 | |
| On target | 5 | 3.3 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 13.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.11 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 47% | 38.8% | |
| Passes | 465 | 358.9 | |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 75.9% | |
| Corners | 6 | 3.5 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 11.1 |
Brighton
17 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 1.48 | 1.7 | |
| xG against | 1.93 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 11 | 13.8 | |
| On target | 5 | 5.6 | |
| Shots faced | 18 | 11.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 53% | 61.3% | |
| Passes | 551 | 602.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88.5% | |
| Corners | 4 | 5.9 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 11.4 |
Timeline
- 3' Goal Anthony Elanga league goal #3 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 21' Sub Ansu Fati → João Pedro
- 26' Goal Evan Ferguson league goal #6 assist Pascal Groß
- 34' Sub Tariq Lamptey → Jack Hinshelwood
- 45+4' Goal João Pedro league goal #3 assist Pascal Groß
- 46' Sub Adam Lallana → Facundo Buonanotte
- 54' Yellow Harry Toffolo
- 58' Goal João Pedro (pen) league goal #4
- 63' Sub Chris Wood → Divock Origi
- 63' Sub Danilo → Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 65' Yellow Simon Adingra
- 69' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Ryan Yates
- 71' VAR Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 72' Yellow Lewis Dunk
- 73' Red Lewis Dunk
- 74' Yellow Moussa Niakhaté
- 74' Yellow Evan Ferguson
- 76' Goal Morgan Gibbs-White (pen) league goal #1
- 77' Sub Billy Gilmour → Carlos Baleba
- 77' Sub Evan Ferguson → Jakub Moder
- 82' Yellow Bart Verbruggen
- 90' Sub Ola Aina → Neco Williams
- 90+4' Yellow Facundo Buonanotte
Category leaders
- Key passesPascal Groß6
- Duels wonJoão Pedro11/18
- DribblesMorgan Gibbs-White3/6
- Defensive actionsMurillo8
- ShotsBilly Gilmour3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonJoão Pedro3
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.