Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal
Key numbers
- Possession 27% – 73%
- Shots 9 (3 on target) – 19 (3)
- Decisive moment: 65' Gabriel Jesus, FN xPts +1.2
Taiwo Awoniyi 89'
HT 0:0
Gabriel Jesus 65'
Bukayo Saka 72'
Bukayo Saka 72'
Nottingham Forest 17th · 20 pts|Arsenal 3rd → 2nd · 46 pts
Arsenal won on the scoreboard and on xG (0.46–1.32).
Player of the matchOleksandr ZinchenkoDecisive moment65' Gabriel Jesus+1.2
Player of the match
Oleksandr Zinchenko Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.5 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min · level 65 min · Arsenal ahead 25 min
- Taiwo Awoniyi — off the bench 45 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
65'
Gabriel Jesus
Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist Oleksandr Zinchenko +0.4
+1.2
72'
Bukayo Saka
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Gabriel Jesus +0.1
+0.3
89'
Taiwo Awoniyi
Goal · assist Gonzalo Montiel
+0.1
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +0.1Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Arsenal
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +1.5Opponent moments −0.1Time effect −0.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestArsenal
27%Possession73%
0.46Expected goals (xG)1.32
0.05xG per shot0.07
9Shots19
3Shots on target3
33%Shots on target %16%
5Shots in box12
268Passes759
73%Pass accuracy89%
2Corners10
2Saves2
6Fouls7
0Yellow cards1
1Offsides3
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
25 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 0.46 | 1 | |
| xG against | 1.32 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 9 | 11.6 | |
| On target | 3 | 3.4 | |
| Shots faced | 19 | 12.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.05 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 27% | 42.6% | |
| Passes | 268 | 402.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 73% | 77.2% | |
| Corners | 2 | 4 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 12 |
Arsenal
30 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0.97 | |
| xG | 1.32 | 1.7 | |
| xG against | 0.46 | 0.7 | |
| Shots | 19 | 15.6 | |
| On target | 3 | 5.3 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 9.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 73% | 59.9% | |
| Passes | 759 | 564.1 | |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 86.7% | |
| Corners | 10 | 6.7 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 10 |
Timeline
- 40' Yellow Gabriel Jesus
- 46' Sub Chris Wood → Taiwo Awoniyi
- 64' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 65' Goal Gabriel Jesus league goal #4 assist Oleksandr Zinchenko
- 71' Sub Orel Mangala → Ryan Yates
- 71' Sub Emile Smith Rowe → Kai Havertz
- 72' Goal Bukayo Saka league goal #7 assist Gabriel Jesus
- 78' Sub Neco Williams → Anthony Elanga
- 78' Sub Gabriel Martinelli → Leandro Trossard
- 78' Sub Gabriel Jesus → Edward Nketiah
- 89' Goal Taiwo Awoniyi league goal #5 assist Gonzalo Montiel
- 90+2' Sub Martin Ødegaard → Jorginho
- 90+2' Sub Oleksandr Zinchenko → Jakub Kiwior
Category leaders
- Key passesOleksandr Zinchenko4
- Duels wonGonzalo Montiel8/14
- DribblesGabriel Jesus3/5
- Defensive actionsMurillo11
- ShotsGabriel Jesus5 (on target 2)
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.