Aston Villa 4-2 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 58% – 42%
- Shots 16 (6 on target) – 10 (3)
- Decisive moment: 4' Ollie Watkins, FN xPts +0.4
Ollie Watkins 4'
Douglas Luiz 29'
Douglas Luiz 39'
Leon Bailey 61'
Douglas Luiz 29'
Douglas Luiz 39'
Leon Bailey 61'
HT 3:1
Moussa Niakhaté 45+5'
Morgan Gibbs-White 48'
Morgan Gibbs-White 48'
Aston Villa 4th · 52 pts|Nottingham Forest 17th · 24 pts
Aston Villa won on the scoreboard and on xG (3.57–2.56).
Player of the matchDouglas LuizDecisive moment4' Ollie Watkins+0.4
Player of the match
Douglas Luiz Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.8 (Dominant)
Game state
Aston Villa ahead 86 min · level 4 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min
- Divock Origi — off the bench 45 min · 0G 1A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
4'
Ollie Watkins
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Leon Bailey +0.1
+0.4
29'
Douglas Luiz
Goal · assist Jacob Ramsey
+0.2
39'
Douglas Luiz
Goal · assist John McGinn
0.0
45+5'
Moussa Niakhaté
Goal · assist Taiwo Awoniyi
0.0
48'
Morgan Gibbs-White
Goal · assist Divock Origi
+0.1
61'
Leon Bailey
Goal
+0.2
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 2.4Own moments +0.8Opponent moments −0.2Time effect 0.0→ League points won 3
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 0.5Own moments +0.1Opponent moments −0.5Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
58%Possession42%
3.57Expected goals (xG)2.56
0.22xG per shot0.26
16Shots10
6Shots on target3
38%Shots on target %30%
13Shots in box7
512Passes372
92%Pass accuracy86%
7Corners2
1Saves2
7Fouls16
1Yellow cards2
1Offsides2
Compared with usual
Aston Villa
37 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 3.57 | 1.5 | high |
| xG against | 2.56 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 16 | 14.6 | |
| On target | 6 | 5.8 | |
| Shots faced | 10 | 9.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.22 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 58% | 57.9% | |
| Passes | 512 | 504.7 | |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 85.9% | high |
| Corners | 7 | 6.4 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 10.7 |
Timeline
- 4' Goal Ollie Watkins league goal #14 assist Leon Bailey
- 15' Yellow Murillo
- 29' Goal Douglas Luiz league goal #8 assist Jacob Ramsey
- 39' Goal Douglas Luiz league goal #9 assist John McGinn
- 45' Yellow Felipe
- 45+5' Goal Moussa Niakhaté league goal #1 assist Taiwo Awoniyi
- 46' Sub Pau Torres → Calum Chambers
- 46' Sub Murillo → Harry Toffolo
- 46' Sub Taiwo Awoniyi → Divock Origi
- 46' Sub Felipe → Andrew Omobamidele
- 48' Goal Morgan Gibbs-White league goal #3 assist Divock Origi
- 57' Yellow Álex Moreno
- 59' Sub Álex Moreno → Lucas Digne
- 61' Goal Leon Bailey league goal #8
- 73' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Ryan Yates
- 81' Sub Morgan Gibbs-White → Giovanni Reyna
- 82' Sub Youri Tielemans → Nicolò Zaniolo
- 90+2' Sub Ollie Watkins → Morgan Rogers
- 90+2' Sub Leon Bailey → Moussa Diaby
Category leaders
- Key passesJacob Ramsey3
- Duels wonJohn McGinn7/13
- DribblesDanilo4/5
- Defensive actionsJohn McGinn5
- ShotsOllie Watkins3 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonDouglas Luiz4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.