Luton 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 60% – 40%
- Shots 10 (4 on target) – 16 (6)
- Decisive moment: 89' Luke Berry, FN xPts +1.0
Luke Berry 89'
HT 0:1
Chris Wood 34'
Luton 18th · 22 pts|Nottingham Forest 17th · 25 pts
1-1 draw, with xG at 0.58–1.98.
Player of the matchReece BurkeDecisive moment89' Luke Berry+1.0
Player of the match
Reece Burke Strong
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 7.7 (Strong)
Game state
Luton ahead 0 min · level 35 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 55 min
- Luke Berry — off the bench 14 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
34'
Chris Wood
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.3
+0.9
89'
Luke Berry
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Reece Burke +0.3
+1.0
Luton
Expected (last two seasons) 2.0Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −0.8Time effect −1.2→ League points won 1
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 0.8Own moments +0.9Opponent moments −1.8Time effect +1.1→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
LutonNottingham Forest
60%Possession40%
0.58Expected goals (xG)1.98
0.06xG per shot0.12
10Shots16
4Shots on target6
40%Shots on target %38%
5Shots in box9
440Passes297
81%Pass accuracy72%
6Corners7
2Saves3
10Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
1Offsides2
Compared with usual
Luton
last 10 matches, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2.8 | |
| xG | 0.58 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 1.98 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 10 | 14.1 | |
| On target | 4 | 5.1 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 17.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 60% | 49.5% | |
| Passes | 440 | 403.9 | |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 78.1% | |
| Corners | 6 | 6 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 10.7 |
Nottingham Forest
last 6 matches, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.98 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 0.58 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 16 | 12.5 | |
| On target | 6 | 4.2 | |
| Shots faced | 10 | 14.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 40% | 38.7% | |
| Passes | 297 | 352.7 | |
| Pass accuracy | 72% | 80% | |
| Corners | 7 | 3.7 | |
| Fouls | 17 | 11.7 |
Timeline
- 30' Yellow Issa Kaboré
- 34' Goal Chris Wood league goal #9 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 46' Sub Alfie Doughty → Cauley Woodrow
- 60' Sub Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu → Andros Townsend
- 75' Sub Chris Wood → Felipe
- 75' Sub Divock Origi → Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 82' Sub Morgan Gibbs-White → Nicolás Domínguez
- 84' Yellow Harry Toffolo
- 85' Sub Jordan Clark → Luke Berry
- 89' Goal Luke Berry league goal #1 assist Reece Burke
- 90' Yellow Matz Sels
Category leaders
- Key passesMorgan Gibbs-White4
- Duels wonRyan Yates10/11
- DribblesChiedozie Ogbene5/9
- Defensive actionsRyan Yates7
- ShotsMorgan Gibbs-White4 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonCarlton Morris4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.