Nottingham Forest 2-3 Chelsea
Key numbers
- Possession 32% – 68%
- Shots 20 (4 on target) – 12 (5)
- Decisive moment: 82' Nicolas Jackson, FN xPts +1.6
Willy Boly 16'
Callum Hudson-Odoi 74'
Callum Hudson-Odoi 74'
HT 1:1
Mykhaylo Mudryk 8'
Raheem Sterling 80'
Nicolas Jackson 82'
Raheem Sterling 80'
Nicolas Jackson 82'
Nottingham Forest 17th · 33 pts|Chelsea 7th · 57 pts
Chelsea won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.56–1.59).
Player of the matchMoisés CaicedoDecisive moment82' Nicolas Jackson+1.6
Player of the match
Moisés Caicedo Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.3 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 6 min · level 68 min · Chelsea ahead 16 min
- Raheem Sterling — off the bench 17 min · 1G 0A
- Reece James — off the bench 11 min · 0G 1A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
8'
Mykhaylo Mudryk
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Cole Palmer +0.2
+0.7
16'
Willy Boly
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.2
+0.7
74'
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Goal · scorer +1.0 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.4
+1.4
80'
Raheem Sterling
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Moisés Caicedo +0.3
+1.0
82'
Nicolas Jackson
Goal · scorer +1.1 · assist Reece James +0.5
+1.6
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +2.1Opponent moments −3.2Time effect −0.4→ League points won 0
Chelsea
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +3.3Opponent moments −1.7Time effect +0.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestChelsea
32%Possession68%
1.56Expected goals (xG)1.59
0.08xG per shot0.13
20Shots12
4Shots on target5
20%Shots on target %42%
13Shots in box10
284Passes623
79%Pass accuracy91%
5Corners6
2Saves2
14Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
3Offsides1
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
last 14 matches, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 1.56 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 1.59 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 20 | 13.4 | high |
| On target | 4 | 4.6 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 32% | 41.7% | |
| Passes | 284 | 389.6 | |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 80.1% | |
| Corners | 5 | 4.2 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 11.4 |
Chelsea
48 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 1.59 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 1.56 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 12 | 15 | |
| On target | 5 | 5.9 | |
| Shots faced | 20 | 13.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 68% | 59.1% | |
| Passes | 623 | 587.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 86.7% | |
| Corners | 6 | 5.7 | |
| Fouls | 8 | 11.3 |
Timeline
- 8' Goal Mykhaylo Mudryk league goal #5 assist Cole Palmer
- 15' Yellow Benoît Badiashile
- 16' Goal Willy Boly league goal #2 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 34' Yellow Conor Gallagher
- 58' Sub Noni Madueke → Christopher Nkunku
- 58' Sub Benoît Badiashile → Malo Gusto
- 72' Sub Gonzalo Montiel → Anthony Elanga
- 72' Sub Ryan Yates → Harry Toffolo
- 73' Sub Mykhaylo Mudryk → Raheem Sterling
- 74' Goal Callum Hudson-Odoi league goal #8 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 77' Yellow Moussa Niakhaté
- 79' Sub Conor Gallagher → Reece James
- 80' Goal Raheem Sterling league goal #7 assist Moisés Caicedo
- 82' Yellow Nicolas Jackson
- 82' Goal Nicolas Jackson league goal #14 assist Reece James
- 86' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Nicolás Domínguez
- 87' Sub Moussa Niakhaté → Taiwo Awoniyi
- 90+2' Yellow Nicolás Domínguez
Category leaders
- Key passesCole Palmer5
- Duels wonMurillo10/13
- DribblesNicolas Jackson4/6
- Defensive actionsOla Aina7
- ShotsChris Wood4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonMarc Cucurella3
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.