Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 73% – 27%
- Shots 20 (3 on target) – 12 (6)
- Decisive moment: 2' Chris Wood, FN xPts +0.7
Josh Cullen 72'
HT 0:2
Chris Wood 2'
Chris Wood 14'
Chris Wood 14'
Burnley 19th · 24 pts|Nottingham Forest 17th · 36 pts
Nottingham Forest won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.21–1.78).
Player of the matchJosh CullenDecisive moment2' Chris Wood+0.7
Player of the match
Josh Cullen Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.0 (Dominant)
Game state
Burnley ahead 0 min · level 2 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 88 min
- Vitinho — off the bench 45 min · 0G 1A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
2'
Chris Wood
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Anthony Elanga +0.2
+0.7
14'
Chris Wood
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Ryan Yates +0.2
+0.5
72'
Josh Cullen
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Vitinho +0.1
+0.3
Burnley
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +0.3Opponent moments −1.1Time effect −0.6→ League points won 0
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +1.2Opponent moments −0.4Time effect +0.9→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
BurnleyNottingham Forest
73%Possession27%
1.21Expected goals (xG)1.78
0.06xG per shot0.15
20Shots12
3Shots on target6
15%Shots on target %50%
10Shots in box8
658Passes246
90%Pass accuracy72%
4Corners3
4Saves3
11Fouls5
1Yellow cards0
0Offsides2
Compared with usual
Burnley
41 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| xG | 1.21 | 0.97 | |
| xG against | 1.78 | 1.7 | |
| Shots | 20 | 11 | |
| On target | 3 | 3.7 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 15.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 73% | 47.7% | |
| Passes | 658 | 438.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 78.5% | |
| Corners | 4 | 4.9 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 11.4 |
Nottingham Forest
last 15 matches, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.78 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 1.21 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 12 | 13.8 | |
| On target | 6 | 4.5 | |
| Shots faced | 20 | 13.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 27% | 41.1% | low |
| Passes | 246 | 382.5 | low |
| Pass accuracy | 72% | 80% | |
| Corners | 3 | 4.3 | |
| Fouls | 5 | 11.5 | low |
Timeline
- 2' Goal Chris Wood league goal #13 assist Anthony Elanga
- 14' Goal Chris Wood league goal #14 assist Ryan Yates
- 16' VAR Chris Wood
- 46' Sub Lorenz Assignon → Vitinho
- 46' Sub Jacob Bruun Larsen → Jóhann Guðmundsson
- 58' Sub Ryan Yates → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 65' Yellow Maxime Estève
- 72' Goal Josh Cullen league goal #2 assist Vitinho
- 74' Sub Charlie Taylor → Josh Brownhill
- 75' Sub Zeki Amdouni → Jay Rodriguez
- 79' Sub Chris Wood → Taiwo Awoniyi
- 80' Sub Danilo → Moussa Niakhaté
- 83' Sub Josh Cullen → Jack Cork
- 88' Sub Anthony Elanga → Cheikhou Kouyaté
- 88' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Rodrigo Ribeiro
Category leaders
- Key passesSander Berge3
- Duels wonDara O'Shea10/13
- DribblesWilson Odobert5/7
- Defensive actionsGonzalo Montiel9
- ShotsChris Wood4 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonRyan Yates4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.