Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa
Key numbers
- Possession 50% – 50%
- Shots 17 (6 on target) – 8 (2)
- Decisive moment: 90+3' Anthony Elanga, FN xPts +1.7
Nikola Milenković 87'
Anthony Elanga 90+3'
Anthony Elanga 90+3'
HT 0:0
Jhon Durán 63'
Nottingham Forest 5th → 4th · 28 pts|Aston Villa 6th · 25 pts
Nottingham Forest won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.78–0.42).
Player of the matchElliot AndersonDecisive moment90+3' Anthony Elanga+1.7
Player of the match
Elliot Anderson Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.8 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min · level 66 min · Aston Villa ahead 24 min
- Anthony Elanga — off the bench 13 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
63'
Jhon Durán
Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist John McGinn +0.3
+1.1
87'
Nikola Milenković
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.3
+1.0
90+3'
Anthony Elanga
Goal · scorer +1.2 · assist Elliot Anderson +0.5
+1.7
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +2.7Opponent moments −0.9Time effect −0.2→ League points won 3
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +1.1Opponent moments −2.6Time effect +0.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestAston Villa
50%Possession50%
1.78Expected goals (xG)0.42
0.1xG per shot0.05
17Shots8
6Shots on target2
35%Shots on target %25%
12Shots in box7
472Passes468
91%Pass accuracy88%
4Corners3
1Saves4
12Fouls6
0Yellow cards1
2Offsides2
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
16 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 1.78 | 1.1 | |
| xG against | 0.42 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 17 | 13.2 | |
| On target | 6 | 4.4 | |
| Shots faced | 8 | 13.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 50% | 40.2% | |
| Passes | 472 | 340.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 77.6% | high |
| Corners | 4 | 4.7 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 11.3 |
Aston Villa
23 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 0.42 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.78 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 8 | 13.4 | |
| On target | 2 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 17 | 11.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.05 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 50% | 51.4% | |
| Passes | 468 | 447.3 | |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 85.5% | |
| Corners | 3 | 5.7 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 11.6 |
Timeline
- 63' Goal Jhon Durán league goal #6 assist John McGinn
- 68' Sub Murillo → Morato
- 68' Sub Ryan Yates → Jota Silva
- 70' Yellow Jhon Durán
- 74' Sub Youri Tielemans → Amadou Onana
- 74' Sub Jhon Durán → Ollie Watkins
- 77' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Anthony Elanga
- 85' VAR Chris Wood
- 87' Goal Nikola Milenković league goal #2 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 90+1' Sub Lucas Digne → Ian Maatsen
- 90+1' Sub Boubacar Kamara → Ross Barkley
- 90+3' Goal Anthony Elanga league goal #1 assist Elliot Anderson
- 90+4' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Willy Boly
Category leaders
- Key passesElliot Anderson4
- Duels wonElliot Anderson13/23
- DribblesElliot Anderson3/5
- Defensive actionsElliot Anderson9
- ShotsJhon Durán3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonMorgan Rogers4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.