Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester City
Key numbers
- Possession 31% – 69%
- Shots 9 (4 on target) – 14 (3)
- Decisive moment: 83' Callum Hudson-Odoi, FN xPts +1.6
Callum Hudson-Odoi 83'
HT 0:0
Nottingham Forest 3rd · 51 pts|Manchester City 4th · 47 pts
Manchester City edged xG (0.73–0.86) but Nottingham Forest took the win.
Player of the matchCallum Hudson-OdoiDecisive moment83' Callum Hudson-Odoi+1.6
Player of the match
Callum Hudson-Odoi Strong
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 7.6 (Strong)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 7 min · level 83 min · Manchester City ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
83'
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Goal · scorer +1.1 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.5
+1.6
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 0.9Own moments +1.6Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.5→ League points won 3
Manchester City
Expected (last two seasons) 1.8Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.8→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestManchester City
31%Possession69%
0.73Expected goals (xG)0.86
0.08xG per shot0.06
9Shots14
4Shots on target3
44%Shots on target %21%
6Shots in box6
261Passes609
80%Pass accuracy90%
3Corners2
3Saves3
9Fouls7
3Yellow cards2
1Offsides1
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
31 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 0.73 | 1.1 | |
| xG against | 0.86 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 9 | 13.5 | |
| On target | 4 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 31% | 41.7% | |
| Passes | 261 | 361.6 | |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 77.8% | |
| Corners | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 11.1 |
Manchester City
42 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2.1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 0.86 | 1.7 | |
| xG against | 0.73 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 14 | 17.2 | |
| On target | 3 | 6.4 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 10.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 69% | 62.6% | |
| Passes | 609 | 609.3 | |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 90.3% | |
| Corners | 2 | 7.6 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 7.3 |
Timeline
- 27' Yellow Morgan Gibbs-White
- 32' Yellow Nico González
- 56' Yellow Matheus Nunes
- 61' Sub Matheus Nunes → Rico Lewis
- 61' Sub Nico González → Mateo Kovačić
- 69' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Ryan Yates
- 69' Sub Phil Foden → Kevin De Bruyne
- 69' Sub Savinho → Omar Marmoush
- 76' Yellow Ryan Yates
- 80' Sub Anthony Elanga → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 83' Goal Callum Hudson-Odoi league goal #5 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 84' Yellow Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 87' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Morato
- 87' Sub Chris Wood → Taiwo Awoniyi
Category leaders
- Key passesAnthony Elanga3
- Duels wonJérémy Doku11/20
- DribblesJérémy Doku7/10
- Defensive actionsNicolás Domínguez9
- ShotsMorgan Gibbs-White3 (on target 0)
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.