Ipswich 2-4 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 56% – 44%
- Shots 11 (4 on target) – 11 (6)
- Decisive moment: 35' Nikola Milenković, FN xPts +0.8
Jens Cajuste 82'
George Hirst 90+3'
George Hirst 90+3'
HT 0:3
Nikola Milenković 35'
Anthony Elanga 37'
Anthony Elanga 41'
Jota Silva 87'
Anthony Elanga 37'
Anthony Elanga 41'
Jota Silva 87'
Ipswich 18th · 17 pts|Nottingham Forest 3rd · 54 pts
Nottingham Forest won on the scoreboard and on xG (0.42–1.52).
Player of the matchNikola MilenkovićDecisive moment35' Nikola Milenković+0.8
Player of the match
Nikola Milenković Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.8 (Dominant)
Game state
Ipswich ahead 0 min · level 35 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 55 min
- George Hirst — off the bench 11 min · 1G 0A
- Jack Clarke — off the bench 10 min · 0G 1A
- Jota Silva — off the bench 9 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
35'
Nikola Milenković
Goal
+0.8
37'
Anthony Elanga
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Elliot Anderson +0.1
+0.4
41'
Anthony Elanga
Goal · assist Nikola Milenković
+0.1
82'
Jens Cajuste
Goal · assist Jack Clarke
0.0
87'
Jota Silva
Goal · assist Morgan Gibbs-White
0.0
90+3'
George Hirst
Goal · assist Dara O'Shea
0.0
Ipswich
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.1Time effect +0.1→ League points won 0
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.8Own moments +1.3Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
IpswichNottingham Forest
56%Possession44%
0.42Expected goals (xG)1.52
0.04xG per shot0.14
11Shots11
4Shots on target6
36%Shots on target %55%
4Shots in box6
438Passes356
84%Pass accuracy79%
6Corners3
2Saves1
4Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
1Offsides1
Compared with usual
Ipswich
32 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1.9 | |
| xG | 0.42 | 0.84 | |
| xG against | 1.52 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 11 | 10.3 | |
| On target | 4 | 3.8 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 14.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.04 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 56% | 43.1% | |
| Passes | 438 | 387.3 | |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 80.1% | |
| Corners | 6 | 4.2 | |
| Fouls | 4 | 11.5 |
Nottingham Forest
32 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1.6 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 1.52 | 1.1 | |
| xG against | 0.42 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 11 | 13.3 | |
| On target | 6 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 44% | 41.3% | |
| Passes | 356 | 358.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 77.9% | |
| Corners | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Fouls | 13 | 11.1 |
Timeline
- 35' Goal Nikola Milenković league goal #4
- 37' Goal Anthony Elanga league goal #4 assist Elliot Anderson
- 41' Goal Anthony Elanga league goal #5 assist Nikola Milenković
- 46' Sub Jacob Greaves → Cameron Burgess
- 54' Yellow Kalvin Phillips
- 64' Yellow Nicolás Domínguez
- 67' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Ryan Yates
- 67' Sub Anthony Elanga → Morato
- 79' Sub Liam Delap → George Hirst
- 80' Sub Julio Enciso → Nathan Broadhead
- 80' Sub Jaden Philogene-Bidace → Jack Clarke
- 80' Sub Chris Wood → Taiwo Awoniyi
- 81' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Jota Silva
- 82' Goal Jens Cajuste league goal #1 assist Jack Clarke
- 86' Sub Kalvin Phillips → Jack Taylor
- 87' Goal Jota Silva league goal #2 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 89' Sub Morgan Gibbs-White → Danilo
- 90+3' Goal George Hirst league goal #2 assist Dara O'Shea
Category leaders
- Key passesLeif Davis3
- Duels wonJens Cajuste11/14
- DribblesJens Cajuste4/5
- Defensive actionsNikola Milenković5
- ShotsLiam Delap3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonJaden Philogene-Bidace4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.