Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 37% – 63%
- Shots 12 (5 on target) – 17 (8)
- Decisive moment: 2' Neco Williams, FN xPts +0.7
Jaidon Anthony 20'
HT 1:1
Neco Williams 2'
Burnley 17th → 15th · 4 pts|Nottingham Forest 15th → 12th · 5 pts
1-1 draw, with xG at 0.85–1.1.
Player of the matchNeco WilliamsDecisive moment2' Neco Williams+0.7
Player of the match
Neco Williams Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.3 (Dominant)
Game state
Burnley ahead 0 min · level 72 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 18 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
2'
Neco Williams
Goal
+0.7
20'
Jaidon Anthony
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Lyle Foster +0.2
+0.6
Burnley
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +0.6Opponent moments −0.6Time effect −0.1→ League points won 1
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −0.7Time effect −0.6→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
BurnleyNottingham Forest
37%Possession63%
0.85Expected goals (xG)1.1
0.07xG per shot0.06
12Shots17
5Shots on target8
42%Shots on target %47%
9Shots in box9
348Passes628
77%Pass accuracy90%
4Corners5
7Saves4
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
1Offsides2
Compared with usual
Burnley
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 0.85 | 0.65 | |
| xG against | 1.1 | 1.9 | |
| Shots | 12 | 8.4 | |
| On target | 5 | 2.8 | |
| Shots faced | 17 | 17.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 37% | 37.4% | |
| Passes | 348 | 336.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 77% | 72% | |
| Corners | 4 | 3.2 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 8.2 |
Nottingham Forest
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2.2 | |
| xG | 1.1 | 0.74 | |
| xG against | 0.85 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 17 | 10.6 | |
| On target | 8 | 2.6 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 12 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.08 | |
| Possession | 63% | 54.2% | |
| Passes | 628 | 486.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 85.4% | |
| Corners | 5 | 5.2 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 10.6 |
Timeline
- 2' Goal Neco Williams league goal #1
- 16' Yellow Florentino Luís
- 20' Goal Jaidon Anthony league goal #3 assist Lyle Foster
- 59' Sub Dilane Bakwa → Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 75' Sub Chris Wood → Igor Jesus
- 76' Sub Dan Ndoye → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 76' Sub Douglas Luiz → Arnaud Kalimuendo
- 81' Sub Loum Tchaouna → Hannibal Mejbri
- 86' Sub Lyle Foster → Zian Flemming
- 90+2' Yellow Morato
Category leaders
- Key passesQuilindschy Hartman3
- Duels wonMaxime Estève8/9
- DribblesJaidon Anthony4/6
- Defensive actionsFlorentino Luís7
- ShotsJaidon Anthony3 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonLyle Foster4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.