Leeds 1-2 Aston Villa
Key numbers
- Possession 48% – 52%
- Shots 14 (5 on target) – 14 (3)
- Decisive moment: 75' Morgan Rogers, FN xPts +1.4
Lukas Nmecha 8'
HT 1:0
Morgan Rogers 48'
Morgan Rogers 75'
Morgan Rogers 75'
Leeds 18th · 11 pts|Aston Villa 9th → 4th · 21 pts
Leeds edged xG (1.79–1.58) but Aston Villa took the win.
Player of the matchMorgan RogersDecisive moment75' Morgan Rogers+1.4
Player of the match
Morgan Rogers Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.5 (Dominant)
Game state
Leeds ahead 40 min · level 35 min · Aston Villa ahead 15 min
- Donyell Malen — off the bench 45 min · 0G 1A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
8'
Lukas Nmecha
Goal
+0.7
48'
Morgan Rogers
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Donyell Malen +0.2
+0.8
75'
Morgan Rogers
Goal
+1.4
Leeds
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −2.0Time effect −0.2→ League points won 0
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.2Own moments +2.2Opponent moments −0.7Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
LeedsAston Villa
48%Possession52%
1.79Expected goals (xG)1.58
0.13xG per shot0.11
14Shots14
5Shots on target3
36%Shots on target %21%
9Shots in box8
400Passes449
85%Pass accuracy80%
3Corners3
2Saves3
18Fouls16
5Yellow cards1
4Offsides2
Compared with usual
Leeds
12 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.8 | |
| xG | 1.79 | 1.1 | |
| xG against | 1.58 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 14 | 13.1 | |
| On target | 5 | 3.8 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 10.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 48% | 50.9% | |
| Passes | 400 | 449.2 | |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 82.4% | |
| Corners | 3 | 4.6 | |
| Fouls | 18 | 9.8 | high |
Aston Villa
16 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0.81 | |
| xG | 1.58 | 1 | |
| xG against | 1.79 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 14 | 11.3 | |
| On target | 3 | 4.2 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 12.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.11 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 52% | 55.6% | |
| Passes | 449 | 453.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 85.2% | |
| Corners | 3 | 5.3 | |
| Fouls | 16 | 9.6 |
Timeline
- 8' Goal Lukas Nmecha league goal #3
- 23' Sub Anton Stach → Ao Tanaka
- 41' Yellow Jayden Bogle
- 45+3' Yellow Ao Tanaka
- 46' Sub Emiliano Buendía → Donyell Malen
- 46' Sub Lucas Digne → Ian Maatsen
- 48' Goal Morgan Rogers league goal #2 assist Donyell Malen
- 53' Yellow John McGinn
- 63' Yellow Ethan Ampadu
- 68' Sub John McGinn → Ross Barkley
- 68' Sub Ollie Watkins → Jadon Sancho
- 71' Sub Lukas Nmecha → Daniel James
- 71' Sub → Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- 74' Yellow Pascal Struijk
- 75' Goal Morgan Rogers league goal #3
- 78' VAR Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- 80' Sub Brenden Aaronson → Joël Piroe
- 80' Sub Noah Okafor → Wilfried Gnonto
- 84' Sub Youri Tielemans → Lamare Bogarde
- 89' Yellow Wilfried Gnonto
Category leaders
- Key passesJoe Rodon2
- Duels wonBoubacar Kamara10/11
- DribblesMorgan Rogers4/9
- Defensive actionsJoe Rodon7
- ShotsOllie Watkins3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonYouri Tielemans4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.