Utrecht 1-2 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 43% – 57%
- Shots 10 (3 on target) – 19 (11)
- Decisive moment: 88' Igor Jesus, FN xPts +1.7
Mike van der Hoorn 73'
HT 0:0
Arnaud Kalimuendo 52'
Igor Jesus 88'
Igor Jesus 88'
Utrecht 32nd · 1 pt|Nottingham Forest 16th → 4th · 11 pts
Nottingham Forest won on the scoreboard and on xG (0.73–1.65).
Player of the matchSouffian El KarouaniDecisive moment88' Igor Jesus+1.7
Player of the match
Souffian El Karouani Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.4 (Dominant)
Game state
Utrecht ahead 0 min · level 67 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 23 min
- Mike van der Hoorn — off the bench 27 min · 1G 0A
- Igor Jesus — off the bench 10 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
52'
Arnaud Kalimuendo
Goal
+1.0
73'
Mike van der Hoorn
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Souffian El Karouani +0.3
+0.9
88'
Igor Jesus
Goal · scorer +1.2 · assist Dan Ndoye +0.5
+1.7
Utrecht
Expected (no record yet, starting estimate) 1.1Own moments +0.9Opponent moments −1.8Time effect −0.2→ League points won 0
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +2.7Opponent moments −1.3Time effect 0.0→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
UtrechtNottingham Forest
43%Possession57%
0.73Expected goals (xG)1.65
0.07xG per shot0.09
10Shots19
3Shots on target11
30%Shots on target %58%
6Shots in box11
361Passes488
84%Pass accuracy86%
7Corners5
8Saves2
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
2Offsides0
Compared with usual
Utrecht
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.4 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 0.73 | 0.78 | |
| xG against | 1.65 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 10 | 9 | |
| On target | 3 | 2.4 | |
| Shots faced | 19 | 14.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 43% | 40.2% | |
| Passes | 361 | 347.2 | |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 75.6% | |
| Corners | 7 | 3.2 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 13.6 |
Nottingham Forest
21 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 1.65 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 0.73 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 19 | 13.1 | |
| On target | 11 | 4.4 | high |
| Shots faced | 10 | 11.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 57% | 52.3% | |
| Passes | 488 | 464.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 83.3% | |
| Corners | 5 | 5.5 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 12 |
Timeline
- 46' Sub James McAtee → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 46' Sub Douglas Luiz → Elliot Anderson
- 47' Yellow Miguel Rodríguez
- 52' Goal Arnaud Kalimuendo competition goal #2
- 63' Sub Matisse Didden → Mike van der Hoorn
- 65' Yellow Elliot Anderson
- 70' Sub Murillo → Nikola Milenković
- 73' Goal Mike van der Hoorn assist Souffian El Karouani
- 78' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Morgan Gibbs-White
- 80' Sub Yoann Cathline → Adrian Blake
- 80' Sub Mike Eerdhuijzen → Nick Viergever
- 86' Sub Arnaud Kalimuendo → Igor Jesus
- 88' Goal Igor Jesus competition goal #4 assist Dan Ndoye
- 89' Yellow Igor Jesus
- 90' Yellow Gjivai Zechiël
- 90+2' Sub Miguel Rodríguez → Miliano Jonathans
Category leaders
- Key passesNicolás Domínguez4
- Duels wonSébastien Haller10/21
- DribblesYoann Cathline2/2
- Defensive actionsSouffian El Karouani7
- ShotsSiebe Horemans3 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonSébastien Haller5
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.