Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 73% – 27%
- Shots 11 (4 on target) – 10 (5)
- Decisive moment: 45' Ollie Watkins, FN xPts +0.8
Ollie Watkins 45'
John McGinn 49'
John McGinn 73'
John McGinn 49'
John McGinn 73'
HT 1:0
Morgan Gibbs-White 61'
Aston Villa 3rd → 2nd · 42 pts|Nottingham Forest 17th · 18 pts
Aston Villa won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.59–0.89).
Player of the matchJohn McGinnDecisive moment45' Ollie Watkins+0.8
Player of the match
John McGinn Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.7 (Dominant)
Game state
Aston Villa ahead 45 min · level 45 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
45'
Ollie Watkins
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Morgan Rogers +0.2
+0.8
49'
John McGinn
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Matty Cash +0.1
+0.4
61'
Morgan Gibbs-White
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Dilane Bakwa +0.1
+0.3
73'
John McGinn
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Youri Tielemans +0.1
+0.3
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +1.5Opponent moments −0.4Time effect +0.2→ League points won 3
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +0.3Opponent moments −1.2Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
73%Possession27%
1.59Expected goals (xG)0.89
0.14xG per shot0.09
11Shots10
4Shots on target5
36%Shots on target %50%
5Shots in box6
645Passes239
90%Pass accuracy71%
4Corners4
4Saves1
10Fouls20
1Yellow cards2
1Offsides4
Compared with usual
Aston Villa
26 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.1 | |
| xG | 1.59 | 1.2 | |
| xG against | 0.89 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 11 | 11.8 | |
| On target | 4 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 10 | 12.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 73% | 53.6% | |
| Passes | 645 | 449.6 | high |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 84.9% | |
| Corners | 4 | 5.1 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 10 |
Nottingham Forest
26 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 0.89 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.59 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 10 | 13.5 | |
| On target | 5 | 4.6 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 11.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 27% | 52.2% | |
| Passes | 239 | 464.6 | |
| Pass accuracy | 71% | 83.4% | |
| Corners | 4 | 5.5 | |
| Fouls | 20 | 11.5 | high |
Timeline
- 45' Goal Ollie Watkins league goal #7 assist Morgan Rogers
- 49' Goal John McGinn league goal #2 assist Matty Cash
- 61' Goal Morgan Gibbs-White league goal #4 assist Dilane Bakwa
- 65' Yellow Dilane Bakwa
- 69' Sub Ian Maatsen → Lucas Digne
- 69' Sub Emiliano Buendía → Jadon Sancho
- 69' Sub Dilane Bakwa → James McAtee
- 69' Sub Ola Aina → Nicolò Savona
- 73' Goal John McGinn league goal #3 assist Youri Tielemans
- 78' Sub John Victor → Matz Sels
- 83' Sub Ollie Watkins → Donyell Malen
- 83' Sub John McGinn → Lamare Bogarde
- 83' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Douglas Luiz
- 83' Sub Igor Jesus → Arnaud Kalimuendo
- 89' Yellow James McAtee
- 90' Sub Matty Cash → Andrés García
- 90+4' Yellow Lamare Bogarde
Category leaders
- Key passesMorgan Rogers2
- Duels wonBoubacar Kamara14/24
- DribblesMurillo3/3
- Defensive actionsBoubacar Kamara11
- Fouls wonEzri Konsa4
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.