Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Rômulo 20'
HT 1:0
Serge Gnabry 50'
Harry Kane 67'
Jonathan Tah 82'
Aleksandar Pavlović 85'
Michael Olise 88'
Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 17:30 (UK) · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig · 32 pts|Bayern München · 50 pts

Bayern München won on the scoreboard and on xG (2.45–4.56).

Player of the matchMichael Olise9.4Decisive moment67' Harry Kane+1.1

RB Leipzig 1-5 Bayern München

Key numbers

  • Possession 42% – 58%
  • Shots 17 (4 on target) – 19 (12)
  • Decisive moment: 67' Harry Kane, FN xPts +1.1
Player of the match
Michael Olise 9.4Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 9.4 (Dominant)

Game state

1-01-11-21-31-41-5
RB Leipzig ahead 30 min · level 37 min · Bayern München ahead 23 min
  • Michael Olise — off the bench 34 min · 1G 3A
  • Jamal Musiala — off the bench 9 min · 0G 1A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

20' Rômulo Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist David Raum +0.2 +0.7
50' Serge Gnabry Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Dayot Upamecano +0.2 +0.8
67' Harry Kane Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist Michael Olise +0.3 +1.1
82' Jonathan Tah Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Michael Olise +0.1 +0.3
85' Aleksandar Pavlović Goal · assist Michael Olise 0.0
88' Michael Olise Goal · assist Jamal Musiala 0.0
RB Leipzig Expected (last two seasons) 1.2Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −1.9Time effect 0.0→ League points won 0
Bayern München Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +2.2Opponent moments −0.7Time effect 0.0→ League points won 3

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

RB LeipzigBayern München
42%Possession58%
2.45Expected goals (xG)4.56
0.14xG per shot0.24
17Shots19
4Shots on target12
24%Shots on target %63%
14Shots in box16
432Passes610
81%Pass accuracy87%
5Corners9
7Saves3
7Fouls6
1Yellow cards0
0Offsides2

Compared with usual

RB Leipzig

19 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals12.3
Conceded51.2
xG2.451.6
xG against4.561.1high
Shots1717.1
On target46.2
Shots faced1912.4
xG per shot0.140.1
Possession42%52.7%
Passes432490.6
Pass accuracy81%84.8%
Corners55.9
Fouls79.3

Bayern München

26 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals53.6
Conceded10.96
xG4.562.5high
xG against2.450.74
Shots1918.6
On target128.7
Shots faced179.4
xG per shot0.240.13high
Possession58%65.2%
Passes610679.6
Pass accuracy87%88.7%
Corners95.5
Fouls69.8

Timeline

  • 20' Goal Rômulo league goal #6 assist David Raum
  • 29' Yellow Nicolas Seiwald
  • 46' Sub Leon Goretzka → Joshua Kimmich
  • 50' Goal Serge Gnabry league goal #6 assist Dayot Upamecano
  • 57' Sub Lennart Karl → Michael Olise
  • 67' Goal Harry Kane league goal #21 assist Michael Olise
  • 81' Sub Nicolas Seiwald → Ezechiel Banzuzi
  • 81' Sub Rômulo → Conrad Harder
  • 81' Sub Tom Bischof → Alphonso Davies
  • 82' Goal Jonathan Tah league goal #2 assist Michael Olise
  • 85' Sub Christoph Baumgartner → Tidiam Gomis
  • 85' Goal Aleksandar Pavlović league goal #2 assist Michael Olise
  • 87' Sub Hiroki Itō → Min-jae Kim
  • 87' Sub Serge Gnabry → Jamal Musiala
  • 88' Goal Michael Olise league goal #10 assist Jamal Musiala
  • 90' Sub Antonio Nusa → Andrija Maksimović

Category leaders

  • Key passesMichael Olise4
  • Duels wonAntonio Nusa9/12
  • DribblesAntonio Nusa5/6
  • Defensive actionsNicolas Seiwald6
  • ShotsAntonio Nusa4 (on target 0)

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.