Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Conrad Harder 40'
HT 1:1
Nadiem Amiri 45' (pen)
Silas 49'
Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 (UK) · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig · 36 pts|FSV Mainz 05 · 18 pts

FSV Mainz 05 won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.74–2.33).

Player of the matchSilas8.0Decisive moment49' Silas+0.9

RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05

Key numbers

  • Possession 70% – 30%
  • Shots 15 (4 on target) – 11 (4)
  • Decisive moment: 49' Silas, FN xPts +0.9
Player of the match
Silas 8.0Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.0 (Dominant)

Game state

1-01-11-2
RB Leipzig ahead 5 min · level 44 min · FSV Mainz 05 ahead 41 min
  • Silas — off the bench 68 min · 1G 0A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

40' Conrad Harder Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Antonio Nusa +0.2 +0.7
45' Nadiem Amiri Pen goal +0.6
49' Silas Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Phillip Tietz +0.3 +0.9
RB Leipzig Expected (last two seasons) 2.0Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −1.7Time effect −1.0→ League points won 0
FSV Mainz 05 Expected (last two seasons) 0.8Own moments +1.5Opponent moments −0.6Time effect +1.3→ League points won 3

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

RB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
70%Possession30%
1.74Expected goals (xG)2.33
0.12xG per shot0.21
15Shots11
4Shots on target4
27%Shots on target %36%
14Shots in box8
700Passes300
86%Pass accuracy69%
5Corners4
2Saves3
4Fouls13
0Yellow cards4
2Offsides2

Compared with usual

RB Leipzig

22 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals12.2
Conceded21.3
xG1.741.6
xG against2.331.3
Shots1516.5
On target46.1
Shots faced1112.2
xG per shot0.120.1
Possession70%53.3%
Passes700502.6
Pass accuracy86%84.8%
Corners55.5
Fouls49.1low

FSV Mainz 05

21 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals21
Conceded11.6
xG2.331.2
xG against1.741.7
Shots1111.2
On target43.5
Shots faced1515.2
xG per shot0.210.1
Possession30%46.2%
Passes300380.6
Pass accuracy69%73.3%
Corners45.1
Fouls1311.9

Timeline

  • 14' Sub Benedict Hollerbach → Silas
  • 38' Yellow Stefan Bell
  • 40' Goal Conrad Harder league goal #2 assist Antonio Nusa
  • 45' Goal Nadiem Amiri (pen) league goal #7
  • 45+3' Yellow Stefan Posch
  • 49' Goal Silas league goal #1 assist Phillip Tietz
  • 59' Sub El Chadaille Bitshiabu → Ezechiel Banzuzi
  • 59' Sub Ridle Baku → Benjamin Henrichs
  • 72' Sub Rômulo → Tidiam Gomis
  • 72' Sub Nadiem Amiri → Lennard Maloney
  • 82' Sub Silvan Widmer → Phillipp Mwene
  • 82' Sub → Paul Nebel
  • 82' Sub Phillip Tietz → Nelson Weiper
  • 86' Sub Nicolas Seiwald → Johan Bakayoko
  • 90+3' Yellow Kacper Potulski
  • 90+6' Yellow Nelson Weiper

Category leaders

  • Key passesDavid Raum3
  • Duels wonKaishu Sano11/12
  • DribblesAntonio Nusa5/8
  • Defensive actionsSilvan Widmer8
  • ShotsConrad Harder4 (on target 2)
  • Fouls wonYan Diomande3

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.