Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace
Key numbers
- Possession 33% – 67%
- Shots 9 (1 on target) – 14 (3)
- Decisive moment: 45' Ismaïla Sarr, FN xPts +1.0
Morgan Gibbs-White 5'
HT 1:1
Ismaïla Sarr 45' (pen)
Nottingham Forest 17th · 26 pts|Crystal Palace 15th → 14th · 29 pts
1-1 draw, with xG at 0.49–1.9.
Player of the matchElliot AndersonDecisive moment45' Ismaïla Sarr+1.0
Player of the match
Elliot Anderson Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.1 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 40 min · level 50 min · Crystal Palace ahead 0 min
- Nottingham Forest: Red card 45' → ~45 min a player down
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
5'
Morgan Gibbs-White
Goal
+0.8
45'
Neco Williams
Red card
−0.3
45'
Ismaïla Sarr
Pen goal
+1.0
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +0.5Opponent moments −1.1Time effect +0.2→ League points won 1
Crystal Palace
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −0.5Time effect −0.9→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestCrystal Palace
33%Possession67%
0.49Expected goals (xG)1.9
0.05xG per shot0.14
9Shots14
1Shots on target3
11%Shots on target %21%
6Shots in box9
282Passes575
73%Pass accuracy85%
5Corners7
1Saves0
4Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
2Offsides0
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
33 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 0.49 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.9 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 9 | 13.6 | |
| On target | 1 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 11.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.05 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 33% | 50.6% | |
| Passes | 282 | 456.3 | |
| Pass accuracy | 73% | 82.7% | |
| Corners | 5 | 5.3 | |
| Fouls | 4 | 11.7 | low |
Crystal Palace
35 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.1 | |
| xG | 1.9 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 0.49 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 14 | 13.1 | |
| On target | 3 | 4.4 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 10.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 67% | 46.7% | |
| Passes | 575 | 403.7 | |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 77.7% | |
| Corners | 7 | 4.4 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 10.6 |
Timeline
- 5' Goal Morgan Gibbs-White league goal #6
- 31' Yellow Chris Richards
- 32' Yellow Chadi Riad
- 45' Red Neco Williams
- 45' Goal Ismaïla Sarr (pen) league goal #4
- 45+3' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Morato
- 46' Sub Matz Sels → Angus Gunn
- 46' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Ryan Yates
- 54' Yellow Yéremy Pino
- 61' Sub Chadi Riad → Christantus Uche
- 70' Sub Igor Jesus → Dan Ndoye
- 75' Yellow Nikola Milenković
Category leaders
- Key passesDaniel Muñoz4
- Duels wonElliot Anderson12/14
- DribblesOla Aina6/7
- Defensive actionsElliot Anderson6
- ShotsIsmaïla Sarr3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonElliot Anderson3
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.