Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Key numbers
- Possession 56% – 44%
- Shots 14 (5 on target) – 16 (6)
- Decisive moment: 26' Jayden Bogle, FN xPts +0.8
Jayden Bogle 26'
Noah Okafor 30'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 49'
Noah Okafor 30'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 49'
HT 2:0
Lorenzo Lucca 86'
Leeds 16th · 29 pts|Nottingham Forest 17th · 26 pts
Leeds won on the scoreboard and on xG (2.5–1.33).
Player of the matchJames JustinDecisive moment26' Jayden Bogle+0.8
Player of the match
James Justin Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.7 (Dominant)
Game state
Leeds ahead 64 min · level 26 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min
- Omari Hutchinson — off the bench 36 min · 0G 1A
- Lorenzo Lucca — off the bench 36 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
26'
Jayden Bogle
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Ilia Gruev +0.2
+0.8
30'
Noah Okafor
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist James Justin +0.2
+0.5
49'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Goal · assist Ilia Gruev
+0.2
86'
Lorenzo Lucca
Goal · assist Omari Hutchinson
0.0
Leeds
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +1.5Opponent moments 0.0Time effect 0.0→ League points won 3
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.2Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
LeedsNottingham Forest
56%Possession44%
2.5Expected goals (xG)1.33
0.18xG per shot0.08
14Shots16
5Shots on target6
36%Shots on target %38%
13Shots in box9
477Passes350
83%Pass accuracy78%
5Corners10
5Saves2
9Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
1Offsides4
Compared with usual
Leeds
26 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 2.5 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.33 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 14 | 13.3 | |
| On target | 5 | 4.4 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 11.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.18 | 0.1 | high |
| Possession | 56% | 47.8% | |
| Passes | 477 | 416.6 | |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 79.9% | |
| Corners | 5 | 4.7 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 9.9 |
Nottingham Forest
34 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 1.33 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 2.5 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 16 | 13.5 | |
| On target | 6 | 4.6 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 11.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 44% | 50.1% | |
| Passes | 350 | 451.2 | |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 82.4% | |
| Corners | 10 | 5.3 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 11.5 |
Timeline
- 26' Goal Jayden Bogle league goal #1 assist Ilia Gruev
- 30' Goal Noah Okafor league goal #3 assist James Justin
- 49' Goal Dominic Calvert-Lewin league goal #10 assist Ilia Gruev
- 54' Sub Igor Jesus → Lorenzo Lucca
- 54' Sub Nicolás Domínguez → Omari Hutchinson
- 61' Yellow Noah Okafor
- 62' Yellow Ibrahim Sangaré
- 67' Sub Morgan Gibbs-White → Ryan Yates
- 67' Sub Callum Hudson-Odoi → Dan Ndoye
- 76' Sub Zach Abbott → Luca Netz
- 78' Sub Brenden Aaronson → Daniel James
- 82' Sub Noah Okafor → Sean Longstaff
- 86' Goal Lorenzo Lucca league goal #1 assist Omari Hutchinson
- 90+6' Sub Jayden Bogle → Sebastiaan Bornauw
Category leaders
- Key passesJames Justin4
- Duels wonGabriel Gudmundsson11/19
- DribblesGabriel Gudmundsson5/6
- Defensive actionsJayden Bogle6
- Fouls wonBrenden Aaronson6
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.