La Liga · Matchweek 23
HT 0:0
Álvaro Carreras 65'
Kylian Mbappé 90'
Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 20:00 (UK) · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia 17th · 23 pts|Real Madrid 2nd · 57 pts

Real Madrid won on the scoreboard and on xG (0.44–0.96).

Player of the matchÁlvaro Carreras8.0Decisive moment65' Álvaro Carreras+1.1

Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid

Key numbers

  • Possession 40% – 60%
  • Shots 7 (0 on target) – 11 (6)
  • Decisive moment: 65' Álvaro Carreras, FN xPts +1.1
Player of the match
Álvaro Carreras 8.0Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.0 (Dominant)

Game state

0-10-2
Valencia ahead 0 min · level 65 min · Real Madrid ahead 25 min
  • Brahim Díaz — off the bench 14 min · 0G 1A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

65' Álvaro Carreras Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist Dean Huijsen +0.3 +1.1
90' Kylian Mbappé Goal · assist Brahim Díaz +0.1
Valencia Expected (last two seasons) 0.9Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.9Time effect 0.0→ League points won 0
Real Madrid Expected (last two seasons) 1.9Own moments +1.2Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.1→ League points won 3

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

ValenciaReal Madrid
40%Possession60%
0.44Expected goals (xG)0.96
0.06xG per shot0.09
7Shots11
0Shots on target6
0%Shots on target %55%
4Shots in box7
359Passes558
79%Pass accuracy89%
5Corners8
4Saves0
10Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
1Offsides3

Compared with usual

Valencia

last 16 matches, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals01.3
Conceded21.4
xG0.441.5
xG against0.961.3
Shots713
On target03.7low
Shots faced1111.2
xG per shot0.060.11
Possession40%51.4%
Passes359457.1
Pass accuracy79%82%
Corners55.1
Fouls1012.1

Real Madrid

32 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals22.3
Conceded01.1
xG0.962.2
xG against0.441.2
Shots1119.5
On target67.2
Shots faced711.8
xG per shot0.090.11
Possession60%59.7%
Passes558575
Pass accuracy89%88.7%
Corners86.8
Fouls1310

Timeline

  • 65' Goal Álvaro Carreras league goal #2 assist Dean Huijsen
  • 69' Yellow Álvaro Carreras
  • 72' Sub Unai Núñez → Thierry Correia
  • 72' Sub Pepelu → Guido Rodríguez
  • 76' Sub David Jiménez → Trent Alexander-Arnold
  • 76' Sub Gonzalo García → Brahim Díaz
  • 81' Sub Filip Ugrinić → Javier Guerra
  • 81' Sub Luis Rioja → Largie Ramazani
  • 82' Sub Lucas Beltrán → Umar Sadiq
  • 82' Sub Arda Güler → Franco Mastantuono
  • 88' Yellow José Copete
  • 90' Goal Kylian Mbappé league goal #23 assist Brahim Díaz
  • 90+2' Sub Federico Valverde → Jorge Cestero

Category leaders

  • Key passesAurélien Tchouaméni2
  • Duels wonAurélien Tchouaméni11/12
  • DribblesÁlvaro Carreras2/2
  • Defensive actionsAurélien Tchouaméni6
  • ShotsKylian Mbappé4 (on target 3)
  • Fouls wonLucas Beltrán4

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.