Bundesliga · Matchweek 25
Jae-sung Lee 39'
Danny da Costa 90'
HT 1:0
Ermedin Demirović 76'
Deniz Undav 77'
Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 (UK) · Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 · 24 pts|VfB Stuttgart · 47 pts

2-2 draw, with xG at 2.73–0.98.

Player of the matchDanny da Costa8.7Decisive moment77' Deniz Undav+1.4

FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart

Key numbers

  • Possession 38% – 62%
  • Shots 18 (6 on target) – 11 (4)
  • Decisive moment: 77' Deniz Undav, FN xPts +1.4
Player of the match
Danny da Costa 8.7Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.7 (Dominant)

Game state

1-01-11-22-2
FSV Mainz 05 ahead 37 min · level 40 min · VfB Stuttgart ahead 13 min
  • Tiago Tomás — off the bench 15 min · 0G 1A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

39' Jae-sung Lee Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Danny da Costa +0.3 +0.9
76' Ermedin Demirović Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Deniz Undav +0.3 +0.9
77' Deniz Undav Goal · scorer +1.0 · assist Tiago Tomás +0.4 +1.4
90' Danny da Costa Goal +1.0
FSV Mainz 05 Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +1.9Opponent moments −2.4Time effect +0.1→ League points won 1
VfB Stuttgart Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +2.3Opponent moments −2.6Time effect 0.0→ League points won 1

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

FSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
38%Possession62%
2.73Expected goals (xG)0.98
0.15xG per shot0.09
18Shots11
6Shots on target4
33%Shots on target %36%
14Shots in box8
318Passes537
72%Pass accuracy85%
5Corners6
2Saves3
7Fouls12
0Yellow cards2
2Offsides0

Compared with usual

FSV Mainz 05

26 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals21.1
Conceded21.6
xG2.731.3
xG against0.981.7
Shots1811.2
On target63.7
Shots faced1115
xG per shot0.150.11
Possession38%44.7%
Passes318374.6
Pass accuracy72%73.7%
Corners54.9
Fouls711.9

VfB Stuttgart

38 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals22
Conceded21.2
xG0.981.6
xG against2.731.2
Shots1116.3
On target46.1
Shots faced1811.9
xG per shot0.090.1
Possession62%59.1%
Passes537536.2
Pass accuracy85%84.5%
Corners65.7
Fouls1210.6

Timeline

  • 39' Goal Jae-sung Lee league goal #3 assist Danny da Costa
  • 65' Sub Lorenz Assignon → Nikolas Nartey
  • 74' Sub Sheraldo Becker → Silas
  • 75' Sub Chris Führich → Tiago Tomás
  • 75' Sub Luca Jaquez → Finn Jeltsch
  • 76' Goal Ermedin Demirović league goal #8 assist Deniz Undav
  • 77' Goal Deniz Undav league goal #15 assist Tiago Tomás
  • 82' Yellow Tiago Tomás
  • 84' Sub Maximilian Mittelstädt → Ramon Hendriks
  • 84' Sub Deniz Undav → Jeremy Arevalo
  • 85' Sub Silvan Widmer → Nelson Weiper
  • 90' Goal Danny da Costa league goal #2
  • 90+2' Sub Jae-sung Lee → Armindo Sieb
  • 90+2' Sub Paul Nebel → William Bøving
  • 90+2' Sub Danny da Costa → Nikolas Veratschnig
  • 90+5' Yellow Jeff Chabot

Category leaders

  • Key passesPaul Nebel4
  • Duels wonPhillip Tietz12/22
  • DribblesMaximilian Mittelstädt2/3
  • Defensive actionsPaul Nebel5
  • ShotsPhillip Tietz4 (on target 2)
  • Fouls wonPhillip Tietz3

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.