La Liga · Matchweek 31
1:0
Lucas Cepeda 73'
HT 0:0
Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 15:15 (UK) · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Elche 18th → 16th · 32 pts|Valencia 14th · 35 pts

Valencia edged xG (0.59–2.54) but Elche took the win.

Player of the matchAleix Febas8.7Decisive moment73' Lucas Cepeda+1.3

Elche 1-0 Valencia

Key numbers

  • Possession 57% – 43%
  • Shots 8 (2 on target) – 22 (8)
  • Decisive moment: 73' Lucas Cepeda, FN xPts +1.3
Player of the match
Aleix Febas 8.7Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.7 (Dominant)

Game state

1-0
Elche ahead 17 min · level 73 min · Valencia ahead 0 min
  • Lucas Cepeda — off the bench 18 min · 1G 0A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

73' Lucas Cepeda Goal · scorer +0.9 · assist Aleix Febas +0.4 +1.3
Elche Expected (last two seasons) 2.0Own moments +1.3Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.3→ League points won 3
Valencia Expected (last two seasons) 0.8Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.8Time effect 0.0→ League points won 0

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

ElcheValencia
57%Possession43%
0.59Expected goals (xG)2.54
0.07xG per shot0.12
8Shots22
2Shots on target8
25%Shots on target %36%
6Shots in box16
441Passes313
85%Pass accuracy85%
5Corners9
7Saves2
15Fouls18
1Yellow cards1
4Offsides3

Compared with usual

Elche

last 18 matches, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals11.4
Conceded01.8
xG0.591.1
xG against2.541.9
Shots810.8
On target23.7
Shots faced2215.4
xG per shot0.070.11
Possession57%56.6%
Passes441488.3
Pass accuracy85%83.4%
Corners54.1
Fouls1513.5

Valencia

last 24 matches, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals01.3
Conceded11.3
xG2.541.4
xG against0.591.2
Shots2212.3
On target83.5
Shots faced810.9
xG per shot0.120.12
Possession43%50.9%
Passes313447.1
Pass accuracy85%82.1%
Corners95.2
Fouls1811.8

Timeline

  • 59' Yellow Buba Sangare
  • 60' Sub Luis Rioja → Diego López
  • 61' Sub Umar Sadiq → Hugo Duro
  • 63' Yellow Guido Rodríguez
  • 64' Sub Buba Sangare → John Donald
  • 64' Sub André Silva → Álvaro Rodriguez
  • 72' Sub Gonzalo Villar → Adrià Pedrosa
  • 72' Sub Martim Neto → Lucas Cepeda
  • 73' Goal Lucas Cepeda league goal #1 assist Aleix Febas
  • 75' Sub Eray Cömert → Pepelu
  • 75' Sub José Luis Gayà → Jesús Vázquez
  • 81' Sub Lucas Beltrán → Arnaut Danjuma
  • 82' Sub Germán Valera → Víctor Chust

Category leaders

  • Key passesMartim Neto2
  • Duels wonAleix Febas13/18
  • DribblesLargie Ramazani4/8
  • Defensive actionsAleix Febas9
  • ShotsLargie Ramazani4 (on target 4)
  • Fouls wonAleix Febas3

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.