Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa
Key numbers
- Possession 41% – 59%
- Shots 15 (4 on target) – 12 (5)
- Decisive moment: 38' Neco Williams, FN xPts +0.9
Neco Williams 38'
HT 1:1
Murillo 23' (OG)
Nottingham Forest 16th · 33 pts|Aston Villa 4th · 55 pts
1-1 draw, with xG at 1.15–1.02.
Player of the matchNeco WilliamsDecisive moment38' Neco Williams+0.9
Player of the match
Neco Williams Dominant
Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.2 (Dominant)
Game state
Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min · level 75 min · Aston Villa ahead 15 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
23'
Murillo
Own goal
−0.8
38'
Neco Williams
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Callum Hudson-Odoi +0.3
+0.9
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +0.1Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.6→ League points won 1
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.2Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.1Time effect −0.1→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →Match stats
Nottingham ForestAston Villa
41%Possession59%
1.15Expected goals (xG)1.02
0.08xG per shot0.09
15Shots12
4Shots on target5
27%Shots on target %42%
9Shots in box8
336Passes501
83%Pass accuracy88%
7Corners3
5Saves4
15Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
1Offsides2
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
46 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 1.15 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.02 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 15 | 14.2 | |
| On target | 4 | 4.8 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 11.5 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 41% | 49.4% | |
| Passes | 336 | 445.1 | |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 82.3% | |
| Corners | 7 | 5.5 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 11.5 |
Aston Villa
45 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.1 | |
| xG | 1.02 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 1.15 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 12 | 12.5 | |
| On target | 5 | 4.6 | |
| Shots faced | 15 | 12.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 59% | 53.9% | |
| Passes | 501 | 459.9 | |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 84.8% | |
| Corners | 3 | 5.2 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 10.1 |
Timeline
- 11' Yellow Matty Cash
- 23' Goal Murillo (OG)
- 38' Goal Neco Williams league goal #2 assist Callum Hudson-Odoi
- 45' Yellow Omari Hutchinson
- 63' Yellow Murillo
- 65' Sub Omari Hutchinson → Chris Wood
- 67' Yellow John McGinn
- 77' Sub Ross Barkley → Douglas Luiz
- 78' Sub Lucas Digne → Ian Maatsen
- 78' Sub Morgan Rogers → Emiliano Buendía
- 84' Sub Morgan Gibbs-White → Nicolás Domínguez
- 87' Sub Ollie Watkins → Tammy Abraham
- 89' Sub Igor Jesus → Ryan Yates
- 89' Sub Ola Aina → Dan Ndoye
- 90+1' Sub Matty Cash → Andrés García
Category leaders
- Key passesCallum Hudson-Odoi5
- Duels wonOla Aina7/8
- DribblesJohn McGinn4/4
- Defensive actionsYouri Tielemans6
- ShotsNeco Williams3 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonOla Aina3
Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.