Bundesliga · Matchweek 33
Xaver Schlager 45'
Willi Orbán 54'
HT 1:0
Abdoulie Ceesay 86'
Sat, 9 May 2026, 14:30 (UK) · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig · 65 pts|FC St. Pauli · 26 pts

RB Leipzig won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.37–0.79).

Player of the matchWilli Orbán8.8Decisive moment45' Xaver Schlager+0.9

RB Leipzig 2-1 FC St. Pauli

Key numbers

  • Possession 70% – 30%
  • Shots 13 (5 on target) – 8 (3)
  • Decisive moment: 45' Xaver Schlager, FN xPts +0.9
Player of the match
Willi Orbán 8.8Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.8 (Dominant)

Game state

1-02-02-1
RB Leipzig ahead 45 min · level 45 min · FC St. Pauli ahead 0 min
  • Abdoulie Ceesay — off the bench 18 min · 1G 0A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

45' Xaver Schlager Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Christoph Baumgartner +0.3 +0.9
54' Willi Orbán Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist David Raum +0.1 +0.3
86' Abdoulie Ceesay Goal · assist Jackson Irvine +0.1
RB Leipzig Expected (last two seasons) 2.0Own moments +1.2Opponent moments −0.1Time effect −0.1→ League points won 3
FC St. Pauli Expected (last two seasons) 0.8Own moments +0.1Opponent moments −0.8Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

RB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
70%Possession30%
1.37Expected goals (xG)0.79
0.11xG per shot0.1
13Shots8
5Shots on target3
38%Shots on target %38%
8Shots in box4
732Passes299
88%Pass accuracy71%
3Corners5
2Saves3
5Fouls9
2Yellow cards0
2Offsides0

Compared with usual

RB Leipzig

36 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals22.1
Conceded11.3
xG1.371.8
xG against0.791.4
Shots1316
On target56.1
Shots faced812.2
xG per shot0.110.11
Possession70%53.6%
Passes732496.3high
Pass accuracy88%84.3%
Corners35.5
Fouls59.4

FC St. Pauli

36 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals10.83
Conceded21.7
xG0.790.8
xG against1.371.5
Shots811.4
On target33.8
Shots faced1311.9
xG per shot0.10.07
Possession30%45.7%
Passes299457.1
Pass accuracy71%77.9%
Corners55.1
Fouls99.9

Timeline

  • 19' Yellow Castello Lukeba
  • 45' Goal Xaver Schlager league goal #3 assist Christoph Baumgartner
  • 50' Yellow Christoph Baumgartner
  • 54' Goal Willi Orbán league goal #2 assist David Raum
  • 64' Sub Lars Ritzka → Hauke Wahl
  • 64' Sub Louis Oppie → Fin Stevens
  • 69' Sub David Raum → Max Finkgräfe
  • 69' Sub Assan Ouédraogo → Nicolas Seiwald
  • 72' Sub Andreas Hountondji → Abdoulie Ceesay
  • 79' Sub Brajan Gruda → Antonio Nusa
  • 86' Goal Abdoulie Ceesay league goal #2 assist Jackson Irvine
  • 89' Sub Connor Metcalfe → Danel Sinani
  • 89' Sub Eric Smith → Mathias Rasmussen
  • 90+1' Sub Ridle Baku → Benjamin Henrichs

Category leaders

  • Key passesDavid Raum3
  • Duels wonJoel Chima Fujita13/21
  • DribblesYan Diomande6/9
  • Defensive actionsJoel Chima Fujita12
  • ShotsChristoph Baumgartner3 (on target 1)

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.