Bundesliga · Matchweek 33
Sheraldo Becker 48'
HT 0:1
Andrej Ilić 38'
Oliver Burke 88'
Josip Juranović 90'
Sun, 10 May 2026, 18:30 (UK) · Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 · 37 pts|Union Berlin · 36 pts

Union Berlin won on the scoreboard and on xG (1.57–2.68).

Player of the matchAndrej Ilić8.0Decisive moment88' Oliver Burke+1.8

FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin

Key numbers

  • Possession 53% – 47%
  • Shots 14 (3 on target) – 16 (9)
  • Decisive moment: 88' Oliver Burke, FN xPts +1.8
Player of the match
Andrej Ilić 8.0Dominant

Highest FN Score on the pitch: 8.0 (Dominant)

Game state

0-11-11-21-3
FSV Mainz 05 ahead 0 min · level 78 min · Union Berlin ahead 12 min
  • Josip Juranović — off the bench 9 min · 1G 0A
  • Tim Skarke — off the bench 2 min · 0G 1A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

38' Andrej Ilić Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Aljoscha Kemlein +0.3 +1.0
48' Sheraldo Becker Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Paul Nebel +0.3 +0.9
88' Oliver Burke Goal · scorer +1.3 · assist Andrej Ilić +0.5 +1.8
90' Josip Juranović Goal · assist Tim Skarke +0.1
FSV Mainz 05 Expected (last two seasons) 1.8Own moments +0.9Opponent moments −2.0Time effect −0.7→ League points won 0
Union Berlin Expected (last two seasons) 0.9Own moments +2.9Opponent moments −1.1Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
53%Possession47%
1.57Expected goals (xG)2.68
0.11xG per shot0.17
14Shots16
3Shots on target9
21%Shots on target %56%
10Shots in box12
462Passes411
84%Pass accuracy82%
7Corners8
6Saves2
11Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
2Offsides0

Compared with usual

FSV Mainz 05

34 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals11.2
Conceded31.5
xG1.571.5
xG against2.681.5
Shots1411.9
On target34
Shots faced1614.2
xG per shot0.110.12
Possession53%44%
Passes462369.1
Pass accuracy84%74.1%
Corners74.9
Fouls1111.2

Union Berlin

35 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals31.3
Conceded11.7
xG2.681.1
xG against1.571.4
Shots1612.9
On target94
Shots faced1413.1
xG per shot0.170.09
Possession47%40.4%
Passes411335.5
Pass accuracy82%70.8%high
Corners85
Fouls1012.7

Timeline

  • 7' Yellow Anthony Caci
  • 16' Sub Danny da Costa → Kacper Potulski
  • 38' Goal Andrej Ilić league goal #3 assist Aljoscha Kemlein
  • 48' Goal Sheraldo Becker league goal #3 assist Paul Nebel
  • 59' VAR Phillip Tietz
  • 59' Sub Livan Burcu → Woo-Yeong Jeong
  • 60' Sub Ilyas Ansah → András Schäfer
  • 60' Sub Tom Alexander Rothe → Derrick Köhn
  • 70' Sub Paul Nebel → Jae-sung Lee
  • 70' Sub Anthony Caci → Nikolas Veratschnig
  • 75' Yellow Jae-sung Lee
  • 80' Yellow Derrick Köhn
  • 81' Sub Sheraldo Becker → Armindo Sieb
  • 81' Sub Phillip Tietz → Nelson Weiper
  • 81' Sub Christopher Trimmel → Josip Juranović
  • 88' Sub Oliver Burke → Tim Skarke
  • 88' Goal Oliver Burke league goal #6 assist Andrej Ilić
  • 90' Goal Josip Juranović league goal #1 assist Tim Skarke

Category leaders

  • Key passesNadiem Amiri6
  • Duels wonStefan Posch7/11
  • Defensive actionsDiogo Leite8
  • ShotsAndrej Ilić4 (on target 3)
  • Fouls wonLivan Burcu4

Past-season matches are summarised from match data (API-Football) without a written review. FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.