Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds: Stach strikes in the 88th minute
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 88' winner broke a 0-0 deadlock
- xG 0.66 v 0.47: Forest had better chances
- Trafford's three saves secured the clean sheet
A goalless match broken late on
Both sides lined up in a 3-4-2-1 and it was goalless at half-time. The deadlock held until the 88th minute, when Anton Stach scored the winner for Leeds. Forest spent 88 of the 90 minutes level and never found a goal of their own.
Plenty of shots, little threat
Forest had 12 shots but only two were on target, and their xG per shot was 0.06. With the attempts split evenly, six inside the box and six outside, it suggests volume rather than quality. Their 56% possession did not turn into clear chances.
Leeds leaned on defence and goalkeeping
Leeds lost the xG battle, 0.47 to 0.66, yet kept a clean sheet. James Justin led all players with eight defensive actions, six of them tackles, and James Trafford made three saves at the other end. It was a side surviving on its back line while being outplayed on chance quality.
One goal flipped the match
Stach's strike was worth +1.8 FN xPts, moving Leeds from level to ahead with two minutes to play. They began the day on 1.0 FN xPts and finished on three points. Leeds led for about two minutes, and that was enough. After matchweek one it is Leeds on 3 points, Forest on 0.
Player of the match
Anton Stach 7.9Strong
He had the highest FN Score on a night with an 88th-minute winner and four interceptions.
Stach did the unglamorous work in midfield, making four interceptions, three tackles and winning nine of 14 duels, while also putting one of his two shots on target. He kept that up for the full 90 minutes, and the 88th-minute goal broke the 0-0 deadlock. It was his first league goal of the season.
Game state
0-1
Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min · level 88 min · Leeds ahead 2 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
88'
Anton Stach
Goal
+1.8
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.7→ League points won 0
Leeds
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +1.8Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.2→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Nottingham ForestLeeds
0.66Expected goals (xG)0.47
Timeline
- 18'
Yellow
Ola Aina
- 32'
Yellow
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- 52'
Yellow
Jair
- 62'
Sub
Dan Ndoye → Chris Wood
- 66'
Sub
Harry Wilson → Noah Okafor
- 74'
Sub
Ola Aina → Luca Netz
- 74'
Sub
James McAtee → Xaver Schlager
- 82'
Sub
Brenden Aaronson → Sean Longstaff
- 88'
Goal
Anton Stach league goal #1
- 90+3'
Sub
Murillo → Arnaud Kalimuendo
Category leaders
- Key passesOla Aina3
- Duels wonIgor Jesus12/24
- DribblesOla Aina3/5
- Defensive actionsJames Justin8
- ShotsMorgan Gibbs-White3 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonAnton Stach4
#Premier League#Nottingham Forest#Leeds#Anton Stach#James Trafford#Matchweek 1
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.