Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds: two second-half goals, 2.72 xG
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 2.72 v 1.18: Leeds had the better chances
- 13 shots to 8, Leeds ahead on volume
- 50': James's opener worth +1.1 FN xPts
Goals arrived only after the break
The first half ended goalless and possession was split evenly. Leeds broke through in the 50th minute, when Daniel James finished a move set up by Sean Longstaff, and James Justin added a second in the 75th minute. From the opener on, Leeds led for about 40 minutes and Forest did not reply.
Leeds shot better, not just more
Leeds had the edge on shot volume and on xG per shot. Their xG of 2.72 was a touch above the two goals they scored, which suggests the scoreline could have been wider. Forest, by contrast, finished with 1.18 xG and no goal, so the gap in shot quality was the clearest difference between the sides.
Forest got into the box but not on target
Forest worked the ball into the box, with six of their shots coming from there, but only three were on target. Chris Wood, Igor Jesus and Nicolás Domínguez each managed one of them. Matz Sels made three saves yet could not stop either second-half goal.
One goal changed the expected points
Daniel James's opener was worth +1.1 FN xPts, a large figure because it turned a goalless match into a lead. Leeds then held out without conceding again, and Nico Elvedi led the way with four tackles and three interceptions, more defensive actions than anyone else on the pitch.
Player of the match
Nico Elvedi 8.1Dominant
He led the FN Score with four tackles and three interceptions.
Elvedi earned most of his points in defence, with seven combined tackles and interceptions, more than any other player, and he won six of his ten duels. He also completed 62 of 68 passes from the back. Once Leeds went ahead in the 50th minute, Forest never scored, and that work looks like part of the reason.
Game state
0-10-2
Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min · level 50 min · Leeds ahead 40 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
50'
Daniel James
Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist Sean Longstaff +0.3
+1.1
75'
James Justin
Goal
+0.4
Knockout ties have no league points, so moments are weighed on a win-3/draw-1 scale only.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Nottingham ForestLeeds
1.18Expected goals (xG)2.72
Timeline
- 26'
Yellow
Ao Tanaka
- 46'
Yellow
Xaver Schlager
- 50'
Goal
Daniel James competition goal #1 assist Sean Longstaff
- 60'
Sub
Ousmane Diomande → Murillo
- 60'
Sub
Arnaud Kalimuendo → Callum Hudson Odoi
- 60'
Sub
Igor Jesus → Dan Ndoye
- 61'
Sub
Ola Aina → Luca Netz
- 67'
Yellow
Sean Longstaff
- 67'
Sub
Sean Longstaff → Harry Wilson
- 67'
Sub
Noah Okafor → Brenden Aaronson
- 68'
Sub
Ao Tanaka → Anton Stach
- 71'
Sub
Daniel James → Jayden Bogle
- 73'
Yellow
Jair
- 75'
Goal
James Justin competition goal #1
- 79'
Yellow
Murillo
- 79'
Sub
Neco Williams → Omari Hutchinson
- 83'
Sub
Lukas Nmecha → Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- 84'
Yellow
Nicolás Domínguez
- 86'
Yellow
Ethan Ampadu
Category leaders
- Key passesDaniel James3
- Duels wonNikola Milenković13/17
- DribblesNoah Okafor2/6
- Defensive actionsNico Elvedi7
- Fouls wonEthan Ampadu3
#Nottingham Forest#Leeds#EFL Cup#Nico Elvedi#James Justin#Daniel James
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.