Elversberg 3-2 Leverkusen: early goals hold off a late rally
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 33% possession, yet in front for 82 minutes
- xG 1.27, three goals: +1.73 over expectation
- Leverkusen: 21 shots, only 4 on target
Little possession, plenty of lead
Elversberg beat Leverkusen 3-2 on the opening Bundesliga matchweek with only 33% of the possession. They led for 82 minutes, a cushion built early and never fully removed by two late Leverkusen goals. Leverkusen dominated the ball, yet it was the hosts who spent nearly the whole match in front.
Petkov and Campbell score by the ninth minute
Lukas Petkov opened the scoring in the eighth minute, set up by Francis Onyeka, and Cole Campbell added a second in the ninth. Each goal was worth +0.7 FN xPts, lifting Elversberg's expected points sharply before the match was ten minutes old. Leverkusen went in at the break two down.
Leverkusen had the ball but not the bite
Leverkusen managed only four shots on target, although their xG of 1.88 was higher than Elversberg's. They did create chances; they simply converted too few. The hosts outperformed their xG by 1.73, and that gap in efficiency looks to have offset the deficit in possession.
The lead survived two late goals
Elversberg made it three in the 46th minute, David Mokwa scoring from Petkov's assist. Patrik Schick, set up by Ibrahim Maza, pulled one back in the 77th minute and substitute Christian Kofane added another in the 90th, but the hosts held on to take the points.
Player of the match
Lukas Petkov 7.9Strong
He scored once, assisted once and made two key passes.
Petkov earned the highest FN Score in the match, with most of it coming in attack. His eighth-minute goal put Elversberg ahead, and his assist for David Mokwa in the 46th minute made it 3-0, a cushion that survived two late Leverkusen goals. He also made two tackles across his 90 minutes.
Game state
1-02-03-03-13-2
SV Elversberg ahead 82 min · level 8 min · Bayer Leverkusen ahead 0 min
- Christian Kofane — off the bench 35 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
8'
Lukas Petkov
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Francis Onyeka +0.2
+0.7
9'
Cole Campbell
Goal
+0.7
46'
David Mokwa
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Lukas Petkov +0.1
+0.3
77'
Patrik Schick
Goal · assist Ibrahim Maza
+0.1
90'
Christian Kofane
Goal
+0.1
SV Elversberg
Expected (last two seasons) 0.8Own moments +1.7Opponent moments −0.3Time effect +0.8→ League points won 3
Bayer Leverkusen
Expected (last two seasons) 2.0Own moments +0.2Opponent moments −1.5Time effect −0.7→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
SV ElversbergBayer Leverkusen
1.27Expected goals (xG)1.88
Timeline
- 8'
Goal
Lukas Petkov league goal #1 assist Francis Onyeka
- 9'
Goal
Cole Campbell league goal #1
- 29'
Yellow
Maximilian Rohr
- 41'
Yellow
Cole Campbell
- 46'
Goal
David Mokwa league goal #1 assist Lukas Petkov
- 53'
Yellow
Ibrahim Maza
- 55'
Sub
Ezequiel Fernández → Facundo Medina
- 55'
Sub
Loïc Badé → Jarell Quansah
- 55'
Sub
Lucas Vázquez → Christian Kofane
- 65'
Sub
Cole Campbell → Maurice Krattenmacher
- 65'
Sub
Francis Onyeka → Noah Darvich
- 65'
Sub
Malik Tillman → Jonas Hofmann
- 75'
Sub
Jan Gyamerah → Luca Sirch
- 75'
Sub
David Mokwa → Luca Schnellbacher
- 77'
Goal
Patrik Schick league goal #1 assist Ibrahim Maza
- 78'
Yellow
Facundo Medina
- 82'
Sub
Maximilian Rohr → Florian Yves Le Joncour
- 85'
Sub
Afonso Moreira → Victor Okoh Boniface
- 89'
Yellow
Nicolas Kristof
- 90'
Goal
Christian Kofane league goal #1
Category leaders
- Key passesMiguel Gutiérrez4
- Duels wonJan Gyamerah7/9
- DribblesFrancis Onyeka2/2
- Defensive actionsMalik Tillman7
- ShotsPatrik Schick5 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonAfonso Moreira4
#Bundesliga#SV Elversberg#Bayer Leverkusen#Lukas Petkov#Cole Campbell#Christian Kofane
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.