Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid: Baena's first-half brace settles it
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 0.9 v 0.93: the chances were level
- Atletico led for about 86 of 90 minutes
- Baena: two goals from three shots
Three goals in 33 minutes
Atletico Madrid scored in the fourth, 26th and 33rd minutes, and that cushion held through the second half. Sevilla's reply came through Miguel Sierra after the hour, but it only trimmed the deficit. The win lifted Atletico from sixth to top of the table on seven points, while Sevilla slipped from fourth to fifth.
More shots, no more danger
Sevilla had 20 shots to Atletico's 12, but the volume did not translate into quality. Their attempts averaged 0.05 xG each against 0.08 for Atletico, and the totals finished almost level. That suggests the extra efforts, many of them from outside the box, added little real threat to the visitors' goal.
Atletico took what they were given
Atletico outperformed their xG by 2.07, turning modest chances into a comfortable lead. Sevilla also found the target five times, but Jan Oblak made four saves to protect the advantage. That gap, rather than the shot count, explains the scoreline and why Sevilla never got back into the match.
Early goals did the damage
Baena's fourth-minute opener was worth +0.7 FN xPts, the largest of the four goals, and Ademola Lookman's second in the 26th minute added +0.4. Once the third arrived, Sierra's reply, set up by Robbie Ure, barely moved the FN xPts needle. The match was effectively decided before the interval.
Player of the match
Alex Baena 8.8Dominant
He scored twice from three shots and created three chances for team-mates.
Alex Baena earned most of his credit in attack: two goals from three shots, plus three key passes. His opener in the fourth minute and his strike in the 33rd minute put Atletico 3-0 up before half-time, so the second half was played with the match largely settled. He now has three league goals and an assist for the season.
Game state
0-10-20-31-3
Sevilla ahead 0 min · level 4 min · Atletico Madrid ahead 86 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
4'
Alex Baena
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Kang-in Lee +0.2
+0.7
26'
Ademola Lookman
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Pablo Barrios +0.1
+0.4
33'
Alex Baena
Goal · assist Marcos Llorente
+0.1
66'
Miguel Sierra
Goal · assist Robbie Ure
0.0
Sevilla
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect 0.0→ League points won 0
Atletico Madrid
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +1.2Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
SevillaAtletico Madrid
0.9Expected goals (xG)0.93
Timeline
- 4'
Goal
Alex Baena league goal #2 assist Kang-in Lee
- 26'
Goal
Ademola Lookman league goal #1 assist Pablo Barrios
- 33'
Goal
Alex Baena league goal #3 assist Marcos Llorente
- 45+4'
Yellow
Marcos Llorente
- 55'
Sub
Jon Guridi → Giorgi Kochorashvili
- 55'
Sub
Julio Díaz → Chidera Ejuke
- 66'
Sub
Marcos Llorente → José María Giménez
- 66'
Sub
Ademola Lookman → Arnau Ortiz
- 66'
Goal
Miguel Sierra league goal #1 assist Robbie Ure
- 68'
Sub
Peque Fernández → Isaac Romero
- 72'
Sub
Kang-in Lee → Koke
- 80'
Sub
Miguel Sierra → Alfon González
- 85'
Sub
Alex Baena → Rodrigo Mendoza
- 85'
Sub
Morten Hjulmand → Johnny Cardoso
- 89'
Yellow
Isaac Romero
- 90+1'
Yellow
Gabriel Suazo
- 90+5'
Yellow
Marc Pubill
Category leaders
- Key passesGabriel Suazo5
- Duels wonGiuliano Simeone9/22
- DribblesChidera Ejuke6/9
- Defensive actionsMarcos Llorente7
- ShotsMiguel Sierra4 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonPeque Fernández4
#La Liga#Sevilla#Atletico Madrid#Alex Baena#Kang-in Lee#Matchweek 3
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.