Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest: substitute Jesus strikes late
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 22 shots, above their four-match average of 11
- xG 2.28 v 0.82 in Forest's favour
- 88' winner worth +1.7 FN xPts
Forest leave Villa Park with the points
Nottingham Forest ended the afternoon with an away win at Villa Park. The first half passed without a goal, and all three arrived after the break. The result lifted Forest to 10th, while Aston Villa stayed 18th. Forest were in front for around 30 minutes of the match.
Forest's shot count outran its quality
Forest's 22 shots were well above their average across four matches this season. Yet an xG per shot of 0.10 suggests the volume came from quantity rather than from the quality of individual chances. That reads as a side that kept shooting rather than one that kept finding clean looks, and the gap between those two things mattered.
Villa shot rarely, but straight
Aston Villa had far fewer shots, but their on-target rate was 71%. That shows the efforts they did manage were pointed at goal, and Matz Sels made five saves to keep Forest in front. Their seven shots were fewer than their average across four matches, yet their shots on target were above it.
A substitute settled it late
Alysson's equaliser was worth +1.0 FN xPts to Villa. But Igor Jesus, also introduced from the bench, broke the deadlock in the 88th minute, and that goal was worth +1.7 FN xPts to Forest. Morgan Gibbs-White provided the assist. Both sides had a substitute on the scoresheet, but only one of them scored the winner.
Player of the match
Morgan Gibbs-White 8.2Dominant
He led all players with seven key passes and set up the winner.
Most of his FN Score came from attacking work: two shots of his own, but the greater value lay in creating for others. That showed in the 88th minute, when his pass found Igor Jesus to break a 1-1 deadlock. His share of that goal was worth +0.5 FN xPts, and he played all 90 minutes.
Game state
0-11-11-2
Aston Villa ahead 0 min · level 60 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 30 min
- Alysson — off the bench 45 min · 1G 0A
- Igor Jesus — off the bench 15 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
46'
Liam Delap
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Murillo +0.3
+0.9
74'
Alysson
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist John McGinn +0.3
+1.0
88'
Igor Jesus
Goal · scorer +1.2 · assist Morgan Gibbs-White +0.5
+1.7
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −1.8Time effect −0.8→ League points won 0
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +2.6Opponent moments −1.3Time effect +0.6→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
0.82Expected goals (xG)2.28
Compared with usual
Aston Villa
4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.8 | |
| xG | 0.82 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 2.28 | 1.7 | |
| Shots | 7 | 11.8 | |
| On target | 5 | 2.5 | |
| Shots faced | 22 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 54% | 44% | |
| Passes | 421 | 403 | |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 82.5% | |
| Corners | 6 | 3.3 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 11.8 | |
Nottingham Forest
4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0.5 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 2.28 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 0.82 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 22 | 11 | |
| On target | 7 | 2.5 | |
| Shots faced | 7 | 12 | |
| xG per shot | 0.1 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 46% | 44.5% | |
| Passes | 360 | 365.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 74.5% | |
| Corners | 1 | 3.3 | |
| Fouls | 16 | 15.5 | |
Timeline
- 25'
Sub
Pau Torres → Tyrone Mings
- 43'
Yellow
Dan Ndoye
- 45'
Yellow
Nicolas Jackson
- 45+3'
Yellow
Murillo
- 46'
Sub
George Hemmings → Alysson
- 46'
Sub
Nicolas Jackson → Tammy Abraham
- 46'
Goal
Liam Delap league goal #1 assist Murillo
- 56'
Yellow
Xaver Schlager
- 63'
Sub
Ross Barkley → Johan Manzambi
- 63'
Sub
Emiliano Buendía → Ibrahim Mbaye
- 74'
Yellow
Liam Delap
- 74'
Goal
Alysson league goal #1 assist John McGinn
- 75'
Sub
Dan Ndoye → Igor Jesus
- 80'
Yellow
James McAtee
- 82'
Sub
James McAtee → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 88'
Goal
Igor Jesus league goal #1 assist Morgan Gibbs-White
- 90+1'
Sub
Liam Delap → Chris Wood
- 90+5'
Yellow
Tyrone Mings
Category leaders
- Key passesMorgan Gibbs-White7
- Duels wonXaver Schlager8/10
- Defensive actionsXaver Schlager9
- ShotsLiam Delap5 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonJohn McGinn5
#Aston Villa#Nottingham Forest#Premier League#Morgan Gibbs-White#Igor Jesus#Alysson
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.