Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano: three goals by the 35th minute
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 2.62, four goals: +1.38 over xG
- Rayo 18 shots vs 10.3 season average
- Led for about 76 of 90 minutes
Three goals on the board before half-time
Real Madrid scored in the 14th, 17th and 35th minutes, and the rest of the match was largely about managing that lead. A fast first-half start was enough to lift them from fourth to second on 12 points. Rayo Vallecano dropped from 14th to 15th, still on four points.
Rayo shot often, but from poor positions
Rayo's shot count was far above their average of 10.3 across their previous four matches this season. Yet ten of their efforts came from outside the box, and their xG was only 1.21. That suggests plenty of volume without many clear sights of goal. Goalkeeper Emil Audero made seven saves and still conceded four.
Madrid outperformed their xG by 1.38
Madrid's xG was 2.62, yet they scored four. They outperformed their xG by 1.38. Their xG per shot was below their season average, so the individual chances were not especially rich. The finishing simply ran well ahead of what the shot quality would predict.
A penalty in the 14th minute opened the door
Álvaro Carreras won the penalty and Kylian Mbappé converted it in the 14th minute, a goal worth +0.5 FN xPts, the highest value of the match. Carreras added a second three minutes later. Sergio Camello pulled one back early in the second half, but Madrid kept their lead and Mbappé sealed the 4-1 in the 90th minute.
Player of the match
Kylian Mbappé 9.2Dominant
He scored twice and set up another, with five shots, three of them on target.
Mbappé earned most of his FN Score through attacking output: five shots, three on target, four key passes and four successful dribbles from seven attempts. His penalty in the 14th minute opened the scoring and he set up Carreras for the second three minutes later. His goal in the 90th minute was his sixth in La Liga this season.
Game state
1-02-03-03-14-1
Real Madrid ahead 76 min · level 14 min · Rayo Vallecano ahead 0 min
- Arda Güler — off the bench 18 min · 0G 1A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
14'
Kylian Mbappé
Pen goal
+0.5
17'
Álvaro Carreras
Goal · assist Kylian Mbappé
+0.2
35'
Jude Bellingham
Goal · assist Vinícius Júnior
+0.1
51'
Sergio Camello
Goal
0.0
90'
Kylian Mbappé
Goal · assist Arda Güler
0.0
Real Madrid
Expected (last two seasons) 2.2Own moments +0.8Opponent moments 0.0Time effect 0.0→ League points won 3
Rayo Vallecano
Expected (last two seasons) 0.6Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.6Time effect 0.0→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
2.62Expected goals (xG)1.21
Compared with usual
Real Madrid
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2.4 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0.8 | |
| xG | 2.62 | 3 | |
| xG against | 1.21 | 0.82 | |
| Shots | 24 | 19.2 | |
| On target | 11 | 8.6 | |
| Shots faced | 18 | 12.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.11 | 0.15 | |
| Possession | 56% | 52.8% | |
| Passes | 543 | 533.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 91.8% | |
| Corners | 11 | 7 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 9.6 | |
Rayo Vallecano
4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2.5 | |
| xG | 1.21 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 2.62 | 1.9 | |
| Shots | 18 | 10.3 | |
| On target | 7 | 5.3 | |
| Shots faced | 24 | 15.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.15 | |
| Possession | 44% | 44.8% | |
| Passes | 415 | 332.5 | |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 77% | |
| Corners | 5 | 6.3 | |
| Fouls | 13 | 14.5 | |
Timeline
- 14'
Goal
Kylian Mbappé (pen) league goal #5
- 17'
Goal
Álvaro Carreras league goal #1 assist Kylian Mbappé
- 35'
Goal
Jude Bellingham league goal #3 assist Vinícius Júnior
- 46'
Sub
Federico Valverde → Eduardo Camavinga
- 51'
Goal
Sergio Camello league goal #6
- 67'
Sub
Gnangoro Bouaré → Óscar Valentín
- 67'
Sub
Pedro Díaz → Rayane Belaid
- 69'
Sub
Bernardo Silva → Aurélien Tchouaméni
- 72'
Sub
Yan Diomande → Arda Güler
- 75'
Sub
Unai López → Mujaid Sadick
- 75'
Sub
Sergio Camello → Alemão
- 76'
Yellow
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
- 85'
Sub
Adrià Pedrosa → Iván Balliu
- 89'
Sub
Vinícius Júnior → Marc Cucurella
- 90'
Goal
Kylian Mbappé league goal #6 assist Arda Güler
Category leaders
- Key passesArda Güler5
- Duels wonYan Diomande9/14
- DribblesJude Bellingham4/5
- Defensive actionsPathé Ismaël Ciss8
- ShotsKylian Mbappé5 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonYan Diomande3
#Real Madrid#Rayo Vallecano#La Liga#Kylian Mbappé#Álvaro Carreras#Jude Bellingham
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.