Elversberg 1-2 Bayern München: Kane restores the lead
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 28 shots, but only 0.10 xG per shot
- Elversberg: 28% possession, 0.19 xG per shot
- Kane: 1 goal, 1 assist, 5 key passes
A tighter scoreline than the numbers suggest
Bayern München won 2-1 at Spiesen-Elversberg, though the margin was narrower than the underlying numbers imply. Lennart Karl put them ahead before the break, Maurice Krattenmacher levelled after the hour, and Harry Kane restored the lead. Bayern's 2.83 xG dwarfed Elversberg's 0.94, but the final difference was still a single goal.
Plenty of shooting, modest quality
Bayern took 28 shots, more than their average from four earlier matches this season, yet each one carried only 0.10 xG. A large number were blocked, which suggests quantity rather than quality: plenty of attempts, but few that arrived from truly dangerous positions. Their dominance of the ball did not translate into clear openings.
Two substitutes drag Elversberg level
Elversberg saw only 28% of the ball but their shots were of higher quality, averaging 0.19 xG each. Nicolas Kristof kept them in it, and two substitutes combined for the equaliser: Noah Darvich, on in the first half, set up Krattenmacher, who came on at half-time. It was Krattenmacher's third league goal of the season.
Kane turns a draw back into a lead
Kane's goal, set up by Aleksandar Pavlović, was worth +1.0 FN xPts, more than Krattenmacher's equaliser at +0.5, because it turned a draw into a lead. Kane had also supplied the pass for Karl's opener, and he finished with five key passes, the joint-most in the match alongside Michael Olise.
Player of the match
Harry Kane 8.8Dominant
One goal, one assist and five key passes gave him the highest FN Score in the match.
Kane's value came mostly from attacking output: three shots, three successful dribbles from three attempts and five key passes. The timing mattered as much as the volume. He supplied the pass for Karl's opener, then scored the goal that put Bayern back in front after Elversberg had levelled.
Game state
0-11-11-2
SV Elversberg ahead 0 min · level 37 min · Bayern München ahead 53 min
- Noah Darvich — off the bench 79 min · 0G 1A
- Maurice Krattenmacher — off the bench 45 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
26'
Lennart Karl
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Harry Kane +0.1
+0.4
61'
Maurice Krattenmacher
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Noah Darvich +0.2
+0.5
72'
Harry Kane
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Aleksandar Pavlović +0.3
+1.0
SV Elversberg
Expected (last two seasons) 0.3Own moments +0.5Opponent moments −0.9Time effect +0.1→ League points won 0
Bayern München
Expected (last two seasons) 2.5Own moments +1.4Opponent moments −0.8Time effect −0.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
SV ElversbergBayern München
0.94Expected goals (xG)2.83
Compared with usual
SV Elversberg
3 matches this season, all competitions baseline
Bayern München
4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0.5 | |
| Shots | 28 | 20.8 | |
| On target | 6 | 8.8 | |
| Shots faced | 5 | 5.8 | |
| Possession | 72% | 68.8% | |
| Passes | 823 | 734.8 | |
| Corners | 9 | 8.5 | |
| Fouls | 8 | 9 | |
Timeline
- 7'
Yellow
Francis Onyeka
- 11'
Sub
Francis Onyeka → Noah Darvich
- 26'
Goal
Lennart Karl league goal #1 assist Harry Kane
- 46'
Sub
Cole Campbell → Maurice Krattenmacher
- 61'
Goal
Maurice Krattenmacher league goal #3 assist Noah Darvich
- 63'
Yellow
Felix Keidel
- 65'
Sub
Nathaniel Brown → Alphonso Davies
- 65'
Sub
Tom Bischof → Joshua Kimmich
- 65'
Sub
Lennart Karl → Jamal Musiala
- 65'
Sub
Ismael Saibari → Luis Díaz
- 72'
Goal
Harry Kane league goal #1 assist Aleksandar Pavlović
- 73'
Sub
Felix Keidel → Amara Condé
- 73'
Sub
David Mokwa → Noel Futkeu
- 84'
Sub
Lukas Petkov → Luca Schnellbacher
Category leaders
- Key passesMichael Olise5
- Duels wonLukas Petkov7/15
- DribblesAlphonso Davies4/4
- Defensive actionsMaximilian Rohr8
- ShotsLennart Karl3 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonMichael Olise4
#Bundesliga#Elversberg#Bayern München#Harry Kane#Aleksandar Pavlović
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.