Alaves 0-1 Valencia: Rioja's 78th-minute goal ends a goalless duel
Short review AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.05 v 0.65: Alaves had the better chances
- 78' Rioja goal worth +1.6 FN xPts
- xG per shot 0.07, below Alaves' 0.11 average
Plenty of shots, little threat on target
Alaves had the better xG, 1.05 to 0.65, yet lost 1-0. Only three of their 15 shots hit the target, and their xG per shot of 0.07 sat below their 0.11 average across five league and cup matches this season. Volume did not become quality.
A substitute breaks the deadlock
The goalless game was settled by Rioja's late goal in the 78th minute, set up by Javier Guerra and worth +1.6 FN xPts. Arnaut Danjuma had a goal ruled out by VAR in the 18th minute, but Valencia held firm behind three saves from Stole Dimitrievski.
Player of the match
Stole Dimitrievski 7.4Strong
Three saves secured the clean sheet.
Dimitrievski earned his points through goalkeeping. He stopped all three of Alaves' shots on target, which kept the match goalless until Rioja struck in the 78th minute and turned the clean sheet into three points.
Game state
0-1
Alaves ahead 0 min · level 78 min · Valencia ahead 12 min
- Luis Rioja — off the bench 19 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
78'
Luis Rioja
Goal · scorer +1.1 · assist Javier Guerra +0.5
+1.6
Alaves
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.7→ League points won 0
Valencia
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +1.6Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
AlavesValencia
1.05Expected goals (xG)0.65
Compared with usual
Alaves
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2.2 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| xG | 1.05 | 1.6 | |
| xG against | 0.65 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 15 | 14 | |
| On target | 3 | 5.6 | |
| Shots faced | 10 | 10.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 43% | 44.2% | |
| Passes | 344 | 323.4 | |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 79% | |
| Corners | 2 | 5.4 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 15 | |
Valencia
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.2 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | |
| xG | 0.65 | 0.77 | |
| xG against | 1.05 | 1.6 | |
| Shots | 10 | 8.4 | |
| On target | 3 | 2.2 | |
| Shots faced | 15 | 14.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 57% | 44.4% | |
| Passes | 475 | 423.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 81.4% | |
| Corners | 5 | 3.8 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 10.2 | |
Timeline
- 18'
VAR
Arnaut Danjuma
- 21'
Yellow
Antonio Blanco
- 21'
Yellow
Javier Guerra
- 45+2'
Yellow
Pepelu
- 52'
Yellow
Aaron Mayol
- 61'
Yellow
Guido Rodríguez
- 63'
Sub
Hugo Duro → Luis Rioja
- 67'
Sub
Denis Suárez → Youssef Enriquez
- 67'
Sub
Toni Martínez → Mariano Díaz
- 70'
Sub
Guido Rodríguez → David Otorbi
- 78'
Goal
Luis Rioja league goal #1 assist Javier Guerra
- 82'
Sub
→ Jesús Vázquez
- 82'
Sub
Pablo Maffeo → Arnau Martínez
- 82'
Sub
Justin De Haas → Iker Cordoba
- 85'
Sub
Ángel Pérez → Carles Aleñá
- 85'
Sub
Antonio Blanco → Ander Guevara
- 85'
Sub
Abderrahman Rebbach → Miguel Rodríguez
Category leaders
- Key passesArnaut Danjuma4
- Duels wonGuido Rodríguez10/16
- DribblesÁngel Pérez2/4
- Defensive actionsPablo Ibáñez5
- ShotsPablo Ibáñez3 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonToni Martínez3
#La Liga#Alaves#Valencia#Stole Dimitrievski#Luis Rioja
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.