Brighton 3-0 Arsenal: finishing outweighs the xG
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.31 v 1.63: Arsenal had the better chances
- 40% possession v 69.6% average in 7 matches
- 59 minutes in front after Groß's 31' opener
A 2-0 half-time lead that held
Brighton scored in the 31st minute through Pascal Groß and again in the 45th through Charalampos Kostoulas, so they went in at the break 2-0 up. Chema Andrés made it three in the 57th minute. Arsenal were level only until Groß's opener, and Brighton spent 59 minutes in front over the 90.
Arsenal had the better chances on paper
Arsenal's xG was the higher of the two, yet they left without a goal. Brighton outperformed theirs by 1.69, despite a lower xG per shot than Arsenal. That points to finishing rather than chance creation as the difference between the sides.
Brighton won with far less of the ball
Brighton averaged 69.6% possession across their previous seven matches this season but had 40% possession here. That is a small sample, yet the drop is stark, and they still had more shots than Arsenal. It looks like a win built on efficiency rather than control of the ball.
Arsenal's threat dried up
Arsenal managed just two shots on target, a long way below their average across six matches this season. Groß's opener turned 0-0 into a lead and was worth +0.9 FN xPts, the largest figure of the match. Kostoulas's goal just before half-time added +0.6 FN xPts.
Player of the match
Pascal Groß 8.2Dominant
One goal, one assist and two key passes put him top of the FN Score.
Groß's goal broke the deadlock in the 31st minute, and his assist for Andrés in the 57th minute made it 3-0. Most of his FN Score came from attacking output, though two interceptions added a little at the other end. It was his third league goal and third league assist of the season.
Game state
1-02-03-0
Brighton ahead 59 min · level 31 min · Arsenal ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
31'
Pascal Groß
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Charalampos Kostoulas +0.3
+0.9
45'
Charalampos Kostoulas
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Diego Gómez +0.2
+0.6
57'
Chema Andrés
Goal · assist Pascal Groß
+0.2
Brighton
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +1.7Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Arsenal
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.4Time effect −0.3→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
BrightonArsenal
1.31Expected goals (xG)1.63
Compared with usual
Brighton
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2.9 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | |
| xG | 1.31 | 2.5 | |
| xG against | 1.63 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 17 | 20.3 | |
| On target | 5 | 6.1 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 9.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 40% | 69.6% | |
| Passes | 343 | 619.3 | |
| Pass accuracy | 76% | 89% | |
| Corners | 5 | 6.1 | |
| Fouls | 13 | 14 | |
Arsenal
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2.2 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0.5 | |
| xG | 1.63 | 1.7 | |
| xG against | 1.31 | 0.68 | |
| Shots | 11 | 15.3 | |
| On target | 2 | 6 | |
| Shots faced | 17 | 8.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.14 | |
| Possession | 60% | 58.8% | |
| Passes | 511 | 530.7 | |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 87% | |
| Corners | 6 | 4.5 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 10.7 | |
Timeline
- 31'
Goal
Pascal Groß league goal #3 assist Charalampos Kostoulas
- 33'
Yellow
Charalampos Kostoulas
- 45'
Goal
Charalampos Kostoulas league goal #2 assist Diego Gómez
- 45+1'
Yellow
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
- 57'
Goal
Chema Andrés league goal #1 assist Pascal Groß
- 60'
Sub
Jurriën Timber → Martín Zubimendi
- 60'
Sub
Bruno Guimarães → Mikel Merino
- 71'
Yellow
Pascal Struijk
- 73'
Sub
Christos Tzolis → Eberechi Eze
- 73'
Sub
Martin Ødegaard → Viktor Gyökeres
- 76'
Sub
Ferdi Kadıoğlu → Costinha
- 76'
Sub
Charalampos Kostoulas → Georginio Rutter
- 81'
Sub
Bukayo Saka → Max Dowman
- 85'
Sub
Chema Andrés → Malick Yalcouyé
- 86'
Sub
Pascal Struijk → Michael Svoboda
- 86'
Sub
Diego Gómez → Matt O'Riley
- 90+1'
Yellow
Maxim De Cuyper
- 90+7'
Yellow
Declan Rice
Category leaders
- Key passesBukayo Saka3
- Duels wonDiego Gómez9/18
- DribblesBukayo Saka3/5
- Defensive actionsDiego Gómez6
- ShotsCharalampos Kostoulas4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonBruno Guimarães4
#Brighton#Arsenal#Premier League#Pascal Groß#Charalampos Kostoulas#FN Score
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.