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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
HSVHamburger SV
2:1
KOE1. FC Köln
Nicolás Capaldo 44'
Yussuf Poulsen 49'
HT 1:0
Ragnar Ache 90'
Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 14:30 (UK) · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 18th → 15th · 3 pts|1. FC Köln 12th · 4 pts

Hamburger SV won despite having just 32% of possession, scoring twice either side of half-time before Köln replied in the 90th minute.

Player of the matchNicolás Capaldo8.2Decisive moment44' Nicolás Capaldo+0.9

Hamburger SV 2-1 Köln: 32% of the ball, three points

Short review AI-written review based on match data · How we make it

Key numbers

  • 7 shots on target, double the 3.5 season average
  • Won 2-1 with only 32% possession
  • 44' opener worth +0.9 FN xPts

Less possession, sharper finishing

Hamburger SV won while ceding possession, and their seven shots on target were double their average of 3.5 across four matches this season. Köln had more of the ball and more shots, but the expected goals were almost level.

Grønbæk's two assists built the lead

The match turned either side of the break. Nicolás Capaldo's goal in the 44th minute was worth +0.9 FN xPts, and Yussuf Poulsen's strike in the 49th added +0.4, both set up by Albert Grønbæk. Ragnar Ache's reply in the 90th minute left too little time.

Player of the match
Nicolás Capaldo 8.2Dominant

He made four tackles and five interceptions and scored the opener.

A defender scoring the first goal gave Hamburger SV a lead they never had to chase, despite the lower possession. Poulsen's goal in the 49th minute made it 2-0, leaving Köln chasing until the 90th.

Game state

1-02-02-1
Hamburger SV ahead 46 min · level 44 min · 1. FC Köln ahead 0 min
  • Yussuf Poulsen — off the bench 45 min · 1G 0A
  • Ragnar Ache — off the bench 26 min · 1G 0A

FN xPts — what each moment was worth

How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.

44' Nicolás Capaldo Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Albert Grønbæk +0.3 +0.9
49' Yussuf Poulsen Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Albert Grønbæk +0.1 +0.4
90' Ragnar Ache Goal · assist Ellyes Skhiri 0.0
Hamburger SV Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +1.3Opponent moments −0.1Time effect +0.1→ League points won 3
1. FC Köln Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0

Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.

How FN Score and FN xPts work →

Match stats

Hamburger SV1. FC Köln
32%Possession68%
1.45Expected goals (xG)1.41
0.12xG per shot0.08
12Shots18
7Shots on target5
58%Shots on target %28%
7Shots in box12
267Passes566
75%Pass accuracy88%
3Corners5
4Saves5
12Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
2Offsides1

Compared with usual

Hamburger SV

4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals20.75
Conceded13
Shots129
On target73.5
Shots faced1817.3
Possession32%44.5%
Passes267406
Pass accuracy75%81.5%
Corners33.3
Fouls1214.3

1. FC Köln

4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
This matchAvg
Goals11.8
Conceded22
Shots1816.3
On target55.8
Shots faced1215.3
Possession68%48.8%
Passes566439.3
Pass accuracy88%84.5%
Corners56.8
Fouls149

Timeline

  • 10' Yellow Albert Grønbæk
  • 44' Goal Nicolás Capaldo league goal #1 assist Albert Grønbæk
  • 46' Sub Terem Moffi → Yussuf Poulsen
  • 49' Goal Yussuf Poulsen league goal #1 assist Albert Grønbæk
  • 54' Yellow Gideon Mensah
  • 64' Sub Gideon Mensah → Borna Sosa
  • 64' Sub Thijs Dallinga → Ragnar Ache
  • 67' Sub Albert Grønbæk → Patson Daka
  • 67' Sub Alessio Castro-Montes → Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
  • 77' Yellow Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
  • 77' Sub David Møller Wolfe → Louis Lemke
  • 77' Sub Zakaria El Ouahdi → Bakery Jatta
  • 81' Sub Tom Krauß → Luca Waldschmidt
  • 81' Sub Linton Maina → Marius Bülter
  • 84' Yellow Ellyes Skhiri
  • 90' Sub Albert Sambi Lokonga → Martin Adeline
  • 90' Goal Ragnar Ache league goal #1 assist Ellyes Skhiri

Category leaders

  • Key passesAlbert Grønbæk3
  • Duels wonZakaria El Ouahdi9/11
  • DribblesMikey Moore3/6
  • Defensive actionsNicolás Capaldo9
  • ShotsFábio Vieira4 (on target 4)
  • Fouls wonZakaria El Ouahdi3
#Hamburger SV#1. FC Köln#Bundesliga#Nicolás Capaldo#Albert Grønbæk#Yussuf Poulsen

This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.