Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa: Villa beat their xG by 1.84
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 3 goals from 1.16 xG: Villa's finishing told
- 36% possession vs 48% six-match average
- 20 shots, 7 on target, two goals for Spurs
Villa efficient, Spurs too late
Tottenham lost 2-3 at home. Aston Villa were three clear before Spurs found a way through, and the late double from Conor Gallagher and Jan Paul van Hecke arrived in the 86th and 90th minutes. Villa were in front for 45 of the 90 minutes, while Tottenham never held a lead.
Finishing, not shot quality, split the sides
Villa scored three goals from an xG of 1.16, outperforming it by 1.84. Tottenham's 20 shots produced 1.56 xG and two goals. Shot quality per attempt was identical at 0.08, so the gap came from the finishing rather than from the standard of chance each side created.
Villa won with less of the ball
Villa had 36% possession, well below their six-match average of 48%. That is a small sample, but it marks a clear dip from their norm. Tottenham's 11 corners matched their highest tally from six matches, yet their goals only arrived in the closing minutes.
A first-half goal set the course
Johan Manzambi's goal in the 45th minute, created by Boubacar Kamara, was worth +0.9 FN xPts, the largest value of any moment in the match. Nicolas Jackson's strike in the 67th minute added +0.4. Tottenham's substitutes did contribute, with Mohammed Kudus assisting and Gallagher scoring, but it was already 0-3.
Player of the match
Emiliano Buendía 8.7Dominant
He scored once, created three chances and made seven tackles.
Buendía earned his credit at both ends of the pitch. He won 12 of 22 duels to hold his own in midfield, and both of his shots were on target. His goal in the 79th minute made it 0-3, which is why Tottenham's two late goals only cut the deficit to one.
Game state
0-10-20-31-32-3
Tottenham ahead 0 min · level 45 min · Aston Villa ahead 45 min
- Mohammed Kudus — off the bench 45 min · 0G 1A
- Conor Gallagher — off the bench 15 min · 1G 0A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
45'
Johan Manzambi
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Boubacar Kamara +0.3
+0.9
67'
Nicolas Jackson
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Johan Manzambi +0.1
+0.4
79'
Emiliano Buendía
Goal · assist John McGinn
0.0
86'
Conor Gallagher
Goal · assist Mohammed Kudus
0.0
90'
Jan Paul van Hecke
Goal · assist Andy Robertson
+0.1
Tottenham
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +0.1Opponent moments −1.1Time effect −0.3→ League points won 0
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.4Own moments +1.3Opponent moments −0.1Time effect +0.4→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
TottenhamAston Villa
1.56Expected goals (xG)1.16
Compared with usual
Tottenham
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 1.56 | 1.2 | |
| xG against | 1.16 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 20 | 14.7 | |
| On target | 7 | 4.8 | |
| Shots faced | 15 | 13.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.08 | |
| Possession | 64% | 59.5% | |
| Passes | 581 | 540.5 | |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88.8% | |
| Corners | 11 | 7.8 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 12.2 | |
Aston Villa
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.16 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 1.56 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 15 | 12 | |
| On target | 6 | 4 | |
| Shots faced | 20 | 15 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 36% | 48% | |
| Passes | 336 | 424.5 | |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 82.4% | |
| Corners | 1 | 4.7 | |
| Fouls | 13 | 11.7 | |
Timeline
- 19'
Sub
Pedro Porro → Archie Gray
- 45'
Goal
Johan Manzambi league goal #1 assist Boubacar Kamara
- 45+7'
Yellow
Jan Paul van Hecke
- 46'
Yellow
Nicolas Jackson
- 46'
Sub
Mateus Fernandes → Mohammed Kudus
- 46'
Sub
Aaron Wan-Bissaka → Matty Cash
- 60'
VAR
Mohammed Kudus
- 66'
Sub
Dominic Solanke → James Maddison
- 67'
Goal
Nicolas Jackson league goal #1 assist Johan Manzambi
- 72'
Sub
Johan Manzambi → George Hemmings
- 79'
Goal
Emiliano Buendía league goal #1 assist John McGinn
- 84'
Sub
Sandro Tonali → Conor Gallagher
- 84'
Sub
Rodrigo Bentancur → Lucas Bergvall
- 84'
Sub
John McGinn → Ross Barkley
- 84'
Sub
Boubacar Kamara → Ibrahim Mbaye
- 86'
Goal
Conor Gallagher league goal #1 assist Mohammed Kudus
- 88'
Sub
Nicolas Jackson → Tammy Abraham
- 90'
Goal
Jan Paul van Hecke league goal #1 assist Andy Robertson
- 90+2'
Yellow
Matty Cash
Category leaders
- Key passesAndy Robertson4
- Duels wonEmiliano Buendía12/22
- DribblesNicolas Jackson6/12
- Defensive actionsJoão Gomes9
- ShotsNicolas Jackson5 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonMicky van de Ven4
#Tottenham#Aston Villa#Premier League#Emiliano Buendía#Johan Manzambi#Nicolas Jackson
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.