Paderborn 3-1 Hoffenheim: three goals from 0.68 xG
Short review AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 0.68, three goals: Paderborn were clinical
- 34% possession vs a 54% four-match average
- Two shots on target vs a five-match average of 7
Little of the ball, plenty of time in front
Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3-1 with just 34% of the ball, well below their average of 54% across four matches this season. They led for 61 of the 90 minutes and scored three from an xG of 0.68, so efficiency decided it rather than territory.
Two first-half goals were enough to hold on
Santiago Castañeda's opener in the 29th minute was worth +0.8 FN xPts, and Stefano Marino doubled the lead in the 42nd. Adam Daghim pulled one back in the 50th minute, but Hoffenheim managed only two shots on target from 23, against a five-match average of seven. Steffen Tigges restored the two-goal cushion in the 69th minute.
Player of the match
Santiago Castañeda 8.2Dominant
He scored once, won 8 of 9 duels and made 4 tackles.
Castañeda won eight of his nine duels to anchor Paderborn's midfield, and his goal in the 29th minute began a spell in front that lasted 61 minutes.
Game state
1-02-02-13-1
SC Paderborn 07 ahead 61 min · level 29 min · 1899 Hoffenheim ahead 0 min
- Steffen Tigges — off the bench 45 min · 1G 0A
- Jonah Sticker — off the bench 27 min · 0G 1A
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist.
29'
Santiago Castañeda
Goal
+0.8
42'
Stefano Marino
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Laurin Curda +0.2
+0.6
50'
Adam Daghim
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Max Moerstedt +0.1
+0.4
69'
Steffen Tigges
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Jonah Sticker +0.2
+0.5
SC Paderborn 07
Expected (last two seasons) 1.2Own moments +1.9Opponent moments −0.6Time effect +0.5→ League points won 3
1899 Hoffenheim
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +0.4Opponent moments −1.5Time effect −0.5→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
SC Paderborn 071899 Hoffenheim
0.68Expected goals (xG)1.5
Compared with usual
SC Paderborn 07
4 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 13 | 14.5 | |
| On target | 5 | 3.3 | |
| Shots faced | 23 | 16.5 | |
| Possession | 34% | 54% | |
| Passes | 325 | 498.8 | |
| Pass accuracy | 71% | 83.8% | |
| Corners | 6 | 4.8 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 10.8 | |
1899 Hoffenheim
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 23 | 20.4 | |
| On target | 2 | 7 | |
| Shots faced | 13 | 11.8 | |
| Possession | 66% | 58.8% | |
| Passes | 639 | 505.6 | |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 81.5% | |
| Corners | 5 | 9 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 14.2 | |
Timeline
- 29'
Goal
Santiago Castañeda league goal #1
- 42'
Goal
Stefano Marino league goal #1 assist Laurin Curda
- 45'
Yellow
Wouter Burger
- 46'
Sub
Marvin Pieringer → Steffen Tigges
- 46'
Sub
Mats Rots → Albian Hajdari
- 50'
Goal
Adam Daghim league goal #2 assist Max Moerstedt
- 62'
Sub
Adam Hložek → Patrick Wimmer
- 62'
Sub
Max Moerstedt → Tim Lemperle
- 63'
Sub
Raphael Obermair → Jonah Sticker
- 69'
Goal
Steffen Tigges league goal #1 assist Jonah Sticker
- 73'
Sub
Gabriel Vidović → Tom Baack
- 73'
Sub
Stefano Marino → Rayan Philippe
- 75'
Sub
Mattes Hansen → Felix Götze
- 80'
Sub
Adam Daghim → Andrej Kramarić
- 80'
Sub
Leon Avdullahu → Fisnik Asllani
Category leaders
- Key passesVladimír Coufal4
- Duels wonSantiago Castañeda8/9
- DribblesAdam Daghim3/10
- Defensive actionsJano Ter-Horst10
- ShotsBambasé Conté3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonLaurin Ulrich3
#Paderborn#Hoffenheim#Bundesliga#Santiago Castañeda#Steffen Tigges
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.