Arsenal 2-1 Leeds: Guimarães comes off the bench to win it
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.76 v 0.74: Arsenal created the better chances
- Leeds fouls: 20 against a season average of 10.7
- 70': Guimarães' winner worth +1.2 FN xPts
A second-half response to falling behind
The match was goalless at the break before James Justin put Leeds ahead in the 55th minute, set up by Gabriel Gudmundsson. Arsenal answered quickly. Riccardo Calafiori equalised in the 62nd minute for his first league goal of the season, and Bruno Guimarães followed in the 70th for his second. It was a swift comeback from the hosts.
Leeds' shots were of lower quality than usual
Leeds' xG of 0.74 sat well below their average across seven matches this season. The issue was less the volume of shooting than its quality, with an xG per shot of 0.07 telling the story. David Raya made four saves and kept the damage to a single goal, which probably explains why Leeds never built on their lead.
Twenty fouls kept breaking up the match
Leeds committed 20 fouls, well above their seven-match season average of 10.7. Between the 36th and 39th minutes, Ao Tanaka and Ethan Ampadu were booked, and then manager Daniel Farke followed. That suggests the rhythm of the match was repeatedly interrupted, even if the data cannot tell us why.
Substitutes and a reshaped XI paid off
Ben White, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Noni Madueke came into the starting XI, and White assisted Calafiori's equaliser. In the 63rd minute White, Kai Havertz and Lewis-Skelly made way for Jurriën Timber, Viktor Gyökeres and Guimarães. The substitution worked when Declan Rice set up Guimarães in the 70th minute. Turning a draw into a lead, that goal was worth +1.2 FN xPts.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Declan Rice 8.2Dominant
He provided an assist, completed 63 of 71 passes and won 9 of 13 duels.
Rice added value in attack, in possession and in defence, which kept Arsenal stable while they chased the match. He won 9 of 13 duels and completed both of his dribbles. His pass then set up Guimarães in the 70th minute, turning the 1-1 that Calafiori had earned in the 62nd into a 2-1 lead.
Game state
0-11-12-1
Arsenal ahead 20 min · level 63 min · Leeds ahead 7 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
55'
James Justin
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Gabriel Gudmundsson +0.3 · ARS −1.0
+1.0
62'
Riccardo Calafiori
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Ben White +0.3 · LEE −1.1
+1.0
70'
Bruno Guimarães
Goal · scorer +0.8 · assist Declan Rice +0.4 · LEE −0.7
+1.2
Arsenal
Expected (last two seasons) 2.3Own moments +2.2Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.5→ League points won 3
Leeds
Expected (last two seasons) 0.5Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −1.8Time effect +0.3→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
ArsenalLeeds
1.76Expected goals (xG)0.74
Compared with usual
Arsenal
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0.86 | |
| xG | 1.76 | 1.7 | |
| xG against | 0.74 | 0.81 | |
| Shots | 13 | 14.7 | |
| On target | 6 | 5.4 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 9.4 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.14 | |
| Possession | 58% | 59% | |
| Passes | 513 | 527.9 | |
| Corners | 3 | 4.7 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 10.7 | |
Leeds
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 0.74 | 1.8 | |
| xG against | 1.76 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 11 | 13.1 | |
| On target | 5 | 4.1 | |
| Shots faced | 13 | 13.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.14 | |
| Possession | 42% | 46.6% | |
| Passes | 352 | 392.9 | |
| Corners | 4 | 4.1 | |
| Fouls | 20 | 10.7 | |
Timeline
- 36'
Yellow
Ao Tanaka
- 38'
Yellow
Ethan Ampadu
- 39'
Yellow
Daniel Farke (coaching staff)
- 55'
Goal
James Justin league goal #1 assist Gabriel Gudmundsson
- 59'
Yellow
Tarik Muharemović
- 62'
Goal
Riccardo Calafiori league goal #1 assist Ben White
- 63'
Sub
Ben White → Jurriën Timber
- 63'
Sub
Kai Havertz → Viktor Gyökeres
- 63'
Sub
Myles Lewis-Skelly → Bruno Guimarães
- 70'
Goal
Bruno Guimarães league goal #2 assist Declan Rice
- 71'
Sub
Ao Tanaka → Harry Wilson
- 71'
Sub
Noah Okafor → Brenden Aaronson
- 78'
Yellow
James Justin
- 79'
Sub
James Justin → Lukas Nmecha
- 82'
Sub
Riccardo Calafiori → Piero Hincapié
- 84'
Yellow
Martin Ødegaard
- 86'
Sub
Jayden Bogle → Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
- 86'
Sub
Nico Elvedi → Jaka Bijol
- 90'
Sub
Martin Ødegaard → Mikel Merino
Category leaders
- Key passesNoni Madueke3
- Duels wonDominic Calvert-Lewin9/20
- DribblesDominic Calvert-Lewin2/4
- Defensive actionsEzri Konsa5
- ShotsJames Justin3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonEzri Konsa3
#Premier League#Arsenal#Leeds#Bruno Guimarães#Declan Rice#Riccardo Calafiori
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.