Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford: leads that vanished within minutes
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.8 v 1.27: Villa had the better chances
- Brentford fouls: 24 v a 13.6 season average
- Villa shots: 20 v a 12.4 seven-match average
Two early goals, then long spells of parity
Yehor Yarmoliuk put Brentford ahead in the 10th minute and Nicolas Jackson levelled in the 12th. From there the scoreline stayed level for most of the match, and neither side was in front for more than about two minutes in total, so the lead never settled on either team.
Villa's xG was built on volume
Villa shot far more than their average over seven matches this season, taking 20 shots. Each attempt was worth a shade less than usual, though, which suggests the 1.8 xG came from sheer volume rather than clean looks at goal.
Fouls piled up for Brentford
Brentford committed 24 fouls, well above their average so far this season. El Hadji Malick Diouf, one of the changes in the starting line-up, made five defensive actions, the most of any player on the pitch, and Caoimhin Kelleher added five saves.
Villa led, then were pegged back at once
In the 77th minute J. McGinn's goal, set up by Johan Manzambi, was worth +1.4 FN xPts to Villa. Kristoffer Ajer's equaliser, created by Jaidon Anthony, followed straight away and cut Villa's FN xPts by 1.4, leaving both sides with a point.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Johan Manzambi 8.1Dominant
FN MOM: seven shots, three key passes and the assist for Villa's second goal.
Manzambi's seven shots brought only one on target, yet his three key passes and the assist for J. McGinn in the 77th minute gave Villa their only lead of the match. He also made four blocks and won two of his four dribbles, so his contribution reached well beyond the final ball.
Game state
0-11-12-12-2
Aston Villa ahead 2 min · level 86 min · Brentford ahead 2 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
10'
Yehor Yarmoliuk
Goal · AVL −0.7
+0.7
12'
Nicolas Jackson
Goal · BRE −0.7
+0.7
77'
J. McGinn
Goal · scorer +1.0 · assist Johan Manzambi +0.4 · BRE −0.9
+1.4
79'
Kristoffer Ajer
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Jaidon Anthony +0.3 · AVL −1.4
+0.9
Aston Villa
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +2.1Opponent moments −2.1Time effect −0.6→ League points won 1
Brentford
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +1.6Opponent moments −1.6Time effect −0.1→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Aston VillaBrentford
1.8Expected goals (xG)1.27
Compared with usual
Aston Villa
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.4 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.8 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 1.27 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 20 | 12.4 | |
| On target | 7 | 4.3 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 15.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 52% | 46.3% | |
| Passes | 406 | 411.9 | |
| Corners | 2 | 4.1 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 11.9 | |
Brentford
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2.6 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0.86 | |
| xG | 1.27 | 2 | |
| xG against | 1.8 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 14 | 17.6 | |
| On target | 4 | 5.6 | |
| Shots faced | 20 | 13.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 48% | 49.7% | |
| Passes | 358 | 436 | |
| Corners | 2 | 5 | |
| Fouls | 24 | 13.6 | |
Timeline
- 10'
Goal
Yehor Yarmoliuk league goal #1
- 12'
Goal
Nicolas Jackson league goal #2
- 35'
Yellow
Thiago
- 45'
Sub
Matteo Ruggeri → Aaron Wan-Bissaka
- 45'
Sub
Jannik Schuster → Aaron Hickey
- 45+3'
Yellow
Emiliano Buendía
- 52'
Sub
Kevin Schade → Mamadou Sangare
- 64'
Sub
Emiliano Buendía → Ibrahim Mbaye
- 67'
Sub
Yehor Yarmoliuk → Mathias Jensen
- 67'
Sub
Keane Lewis-Potter → Dango Ouattara
- 72'
Yellow
Matty Cash
- 75'
Yellow
Vitaly Janelt
- 77'
Goal
J. McGinn league goal #1 assist Johan Manzambi
- 79'
Goal
Kristoffer Ajer league goal #1 assist Jaidon Anthony
- 82'
Yellow
Michael Kayode
- 84'
Yellow
Kristoffer Ajer
- 85'
Sub
Jaidon Anthony → Callum Wilson
- 86'
Sub
Johan Manzambi → Alysson Edward
- 86'
Sub
João Gomes → Ross Barkley
- 90+5'
Yellow
K. Andrews (coaching staff)
- 90+5'
Yellow
Callum Wilson
Category leaders
- Key passesThiago3
- Duels wonBoubacar Kamara9/13
- DribblesJohan Manzambi2/4
- Defensive actionsEl Hadji Malick Diouf5
- ShotsJohan Manzambi7 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonBoubacar Kamara5
#Premier League#Aston Villa#Brentford#Johan Manzambi#J. McGinn#Match review
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.