Mainz 3-4 Leverkusen: more xG, fewer goals
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 2.91 v 1.68: Mainz had the better chances
- Leverkusen led for 72 of the 90 minutes
- Goals minus xG +2.32 for Leverkusen
Mainz level at 2-2, then fall behind again
Mainz were two goals down inside nine minutes, yet Anthony Caci's brace pulled them level before the break. After the restart they went behind again and could not find a second equaliser. Benedict Hollerbach's goal in the second minute of stoppage time left them a goal short.
Mainz did the shooting, Leverkusen the scoring
Leverkusen conceded 23 shots, far above their six-match season average of 7.8, so Mainz clearly pressed the issue. The return was another story. Leverkusen outperformed their xG by 2.32 to score four, while only 22% of Mainz's attempts were on target.
Andrich's start pays off for Leverkusen
Robert Andrich, named in the starting side before kick-off, scored the opener and recorded eight defensive actions, the most of any player in the match. Mainz's own change in the XI, Eric Martel, had four shots, but only one of them found the target.
The goal straight after the equaliser turned it
The balance tipped in the 55th minute when Jarell Quansah put Leverkusen back in front. Coming from level, it was worth +1.0 FN xPts, the highest value of the match. Mainz then conceded again, and their consolation did not arrive until stoppage time.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Anthony Caci 9.1Dominant
Two goals, four key passes and five tackles in 70 minutes.
Caci's goals in the 33rd and 42nd minutes dragged Mainz from two down to level before the break. His seven duel wins from 11 show he shaped the contest in midfield as well as in front of goal. Mainz did not score again until stoppage time, long after he was replaced in the 70th minute.
Game state
0-10-21-22-22-32-43-4
FSV Mainz 05 ahead 0 min · level 18 min · Bayer Leverkusen ahead 72 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
5'
Robert Andrich
Goal · M05 −0.6
+0.6
9'
Patrik Schick
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Aleix García +0.2 · M05 −0.4
+0.5
33'
Anthony Caci
Goal · B04 −0.5
+0.3
42'
Anthony Caci
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Nadiem Amiri +0.2 · B04 −0.9
+0.7
55'
Jarell Quansah
Goal · M05 −0.8
+1.0
65'
Moussa Diaby
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Afonso Moreira +0.1 · M05 −0.3
+0.4
90+2'
Benedict Hollerbach
Goal · B04 −0.1
0.0
FSV Mainz 05
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +1.0Opponent moments −2.1Time effect 0.0→ League points won 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +2.5Opponent moments −1.5Time effect +0.4→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen
2.91Expected goals (xG)1.68
Compared with usual
FSV Mainz 05
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 3.8 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 2.91 | 2.2 | |
| xG against | 1.68 | 1.6 | |
| Shots | 23 | 20.6 | |
| On target | 5 | 7.4 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 12 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 47% | 55% | |
| Passes | 442 | 477 | |
| Corners | 4 | 6.6 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 12.4 | |
Bayer Leverkusen
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2.7 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0.83 | |
| xG | 1.68 | 2.4 | |
| xG against | 2.91 | 0.93 | |
| Shots | 16 | 21 | |
| On target | 7 | 6.8 | |
| Shots faced | 23 | 7.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.11 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 53% | 62% | |
| Passes | 508 | 586.5 | |
| Corners | 3 | 7.7 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 13.3 | |
Timeline
- 5'
Goal
Robert Andrich league goal #1
- 9'
Goal
Patrik Schick league goal #5 assist Aleix García
- 20'
Yellow
Phillip Tietz
- 33'
Goal
Anthony Caci league goal #1
- 35'
Yellow
Sheraldo Becker
- 42'
Goal
Anthony Caci league goal #2 assist Nadiem Amiri
- 55'
Goal
Jarell Quansah league goal #1
- 65'
Goal
Moussa Diaby league goal #1 assist Afonso Moreira
- 66'
Sub
Ibrahim Maza → Martin Terrier
- 70'
Sub
Anthony Caci → Danny da Costa
- 70'
Sub
Kacper Potulski → Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer
- 70'
Sub
Eric Martel → Lee Jae-Sung
- 75'
Sub
Afonso Moreira → Nathan Tella
- 75'
Sub
Moussa Diaby → Malik Tillman
- 76'
Yellow
Lee Jae-Sung
- 77'
Sub
Sheraldo Becker → Benedict Hollerbach
- 81'
Sub
Kaishu Sano → Lennard Maloney
- 83'
Sub
Patrik Schick → Jonas Hofmann
- 84'
Sub
Aleix García → Ezequiel Fernández
- 90+2'
Goal
Benedict Hollerbach league goal #1
- 90+3'
Yellow
Jarell Quansah
Category leaders
- Key passesSheraldo Becker6
- Duels wonRobert Andrich8/10
- DribblesMiguel Gutiérrez2/5
- Defensive actionsRobert Andrich8
- ShotsPhillip Tietz5 (on target 1)
#Bundesliga#Mainz#Leverkusen#Anthony Caci#Robert Andrich#Jarell Quansah
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.