Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest: a first-half turnaround
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Shots 13 v 24: Palace won with fewer attempts
- xG per shot 0.19 v 0.12 in Palace's favour
- Led for about 45 minutes, trailed for about 38
Palace led for longer despite the early goal
Nottingham Forest struck in the third minute through Dan Ndoye, but Crystal Palace turned the match around before half-time. Two goals before the break put them ahead, and Yeremy Pino added a third in the 59th minute. Palace were in front for about 45 minutes and behind for about 38, which shows how the match tilted once Forest's early lead was gone.
Forest had the volume but little bite
Forest had more of the ball and took 24 shots, well above their average of 15 across six matches this season. Only six hit the target, and a side that created 2.95 xG came away with a single goal. The pressure was real, but it rarely turned into clear-cut chances.
Palace were sharper with fewer shots
Palace took only 13 shots, yet seven were on target and each carried 0.19 xG, above their season average of 0.12 across seven matches. Fewer but better chances is how the numbers read. They were outshot by a wide margin, and they made up the difference with the quality of what they did get.
A stoppage-time goal gave Palace the lead
The match turned at the end of the first half. Daichi Kamada levelled in the 41st minute, and in the fourth minute of first-half stoppage time Jefferson Lerma put Palace ahead, a goal worth +0.9 FN xPts, the largest of the four. Lerma had come into the side with Takehiro Tomiyasu out of the squad, and the goal came from Adam Wharton's pass.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Adam Wharton 7.8Strong
Three key passes and the assist for Lerma's goal in the 45+4' minute.
Wharton's biggest returns came in attack, backed up by solid tackling and passing: 42 of his 52 passes found a team-mate and he won four of five duels. The pass for Lerma's goal turned 1-1 into 2-1 at the end of the first half, handing Palace a lead they kept for the rest of the match.
Game state
0-11-12-13-1
Crystal Palace ahead 45 min · level 7 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 38 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
3'
Dan Ndoye
Goal · CRY −0.5
+0.6
41'
Daichi Kamada
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Quinten Timber +0.2 · NFO −0.8
+0.7
45+4'
Jefferson Lerma
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Adam Wharton +0.3 · NFO −0.8
+0.9
59'
Yeremy Pino
Goal · NFO −0.4
+0.6
Crystal Palace
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +2.2Opponent moments −0.5Time effect +0.2→ League points won 3
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +0.6Opponent moments −2.0Time effect −0.2→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
2.42Expected goals (xG)2.95
Compared with usual
Crystal Palace
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 2.42 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 2.95 | 1.9 | |
| Shots | 13 | 11 | |
| On target | 7 | 4.1 | |
| Shots faced | 24 | 16.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.19 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 43% | 44.6% | |
| Passes | 384 | 431.6 | |
| Corners | 5 | 2.7 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 9.9 | |
Nottingham Forest
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 2.95 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 2.42 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 24 | 15 | |
| On target | 6 | 3.3 | |
| Shots faced | 13 | 10.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 57% | 47.7% | |
| Passes | 491 | 388.5 | |
| Corners | 8 | 3.3 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 15 | |
Timeline
- 3'
Goal
Dan Ndoye league goal #2
- 16'
Yellow
Jefferson Lerma
- 41'
Goal
Daichi Kamada league goal #1 assist Quinten Timber
- 45+4'
Goal
Jefferson Lerma league goal #1 assist Adam Wharton
- 59'
Goal
Yeremy Pino league goal #1
- 60'
Yellow
Yeremy Pino
- 66'
Sub
Xaver Schlager → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 72'
Sub
Jefferson Lerma → Honest Ahanor
- 72'
Sub
Liam Delap → Chris Wood
- 72'
Sub
Dan Ndoye → Callum Hudson Odoi
- 73'
Yellow
Ola Aina
- 83'
Sub
Yeremy Pino → Ismaïla Sarr
- 83'
Sub
Ola Aina → Arnaud Kalimuendo
- 83'
Sub
Jørgen Strand Larsen → Eddie Nketiah
- 90'
Sub
Daichi Kamada → Dwight McNeil
- 90+4'
Yellow
Murillo
Category leaders
- Key passesAdam Wharton3
- Duels wonTyrick Mitchell9/12
- DribblesDan Ndoye4/5
- Defensive actionsTyrick Mitchell8
- ShotsDan Ndoye4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonQuinten Timber3
#Premier League#Crystal Palace#Nottingham Forest#Adam Wharton#Yeremy Pino#Jefferson Lerma
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.