Lille 1-0 Le Havre: Bakwa's early goal is enough
Short review AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Shots 5 v 17: Lille won with far fewer
- xG per shot 0.25 v 0.08 favoured Lille
- Led for 85 of 90 minutes after the 5' goal
An early lead that lasted 85 minutes
Lille held on to an early goal to beat Le Havre 1-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. They led for 85 of the 90 minutes, yet Le Havre had far more shots, so this was a win built on one early strike and plenty of resistance.
Lille's shots were fewer but sharper
Dilane Bakwa's fifth-minute goal, set up by Tanguy Nianzou, was worth +0.6 FN xPts. Lille managed only five shots but averaged 0.25 xG per shot, against 0.08 for Le Havre, who fired 17 without scoring. Le Havre also spent about 29 minutes a man short after Ayumu Seko's red card in the 61st minute.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Dilane Bakwa 8.1Dominant
He scored once, had two shots and a key pass, and made six tackles.
Bakwa's seven defensive actions were the most of any player on the pitch, and he won nine of his 23 duels. That meant the man who scored the only goal also did much of the work to protect it.
Game state
1-0
Lille ahead 85 min · level 5 min · Le Havre ahead 0 min
- Le Havre: Red card 61' → ~29 min a player down
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
5'
Dilane Bakwa
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Tanguy Nianzou +0.2 · HAC −0.5
+0.6
61'
Ayumu Seko
Red card · LIL +0.2
−0.1
Lille
Expected (last two seasons) 1.9Own moments +0.6Opponent moments +0.2Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Le Havre
Expected (last two seasons) 0.9Own moments −0.1Opponent moments −0.5Time effect −0.3→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
LilleLe Havre
1.27Expected goals (xG)1.36
Compared with usual
Lille
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 1.27 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 1.36 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 5 | 11.7 | |
| On target | 1 | 5.7 | |
| Shots faced | 17 | 16.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.25 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 47% | 47.2% | |
| Passes | 409 | 459.3 | |
| Corners | 4 | 3.2 | |
| Fouls | 17 | 10.7 | |
Le Havre
5 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0.8 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 1.36 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.27 | 1.6 | |
| Shots | 17 | 15.6 | |
| On target | 2 | 5 | |
| Shots faced | 5 | 14.4 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 53% | 48.4% | |
| Passes | 448 | 399 | |
| Corners | 5 | 5.6 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 14.8 | |
Timeline
- 5'
Goal
Dilane Bakwa league goal #2 assist Tanguy Nianzou
- 22'
Sub
Tiago Santos → Maxima Goffi
- 57'
Sub
Gaëtan Perrin → Hakon Arnar Haraldsson
- 57'
Sub
Olivier Giroud → Ayase Ueda
- 61'
Red
Ayumu Seko
- 63'
Yellow
Rassoul Ndiaye
- 69'
Sub
Sota Nakamura → Rayan Fofana
- 69'
Sub
Josh Maja → Junior Mwanga
- 73'
Sub
Romain Perraud → Calvin Verdonk
- 73'
Sub
Ngal'ayel Mukau → Osame Sahraoui
- 76'
Yellow
Djibril Ouziad
- 82'
Sub
Amir Richardson → Kaito Mizuta
- 85'
Yellow
Maurits Kjaergaard
- 90+2'
Yellow
Maxima Goffi
Category leaders
- Key passesRassoul Ndiaye6
- Duels wonM. Ndiaye11/15
- DribblesRassoul Ndiaye3/5
- Defensive actionsDilane Bakwa7
- ShotsAlly Samatta6 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonSimon Ebonog4
#Lille#Le Havre#Ligue 1#Dilane Bakwa#Tanguy Nianzou
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.