RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV: Gruda's goal and Vandevoordt's saves
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 2.19 vs 1.46: Leipzig had the better chances
- 43% possession vs a 57.1% season average
- Five saves for Vandevoordt, six for Kovář
Gruda breaks the deadlock late
RB Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1-0 at the Red Bull Arena in a match that stayed goalless until deep in the second half. Ivan Perišić missed a penalty for PSV in the 19th minute, and Leipzig took the lead only in the 75th, when Brajan Gruda scored the only goal. He was substituted a minute later.
Less of the ball, but not fewer shots
Leipzig did this with less of the ball than usual. Their 43% possession compares with a 57.1% average across seven matches this season. Their shot volume, though, was close to that average, which suggests shots rather than possession carried the side here.
Chances made, but not taken
The finishing was the weak point. Leipzig's xG of 2.19 far exceeded their return, and at 0.12 per shot the quality of chance matched their season average. PSV goalkeeper Matěj Kovář made six saves, and Kovář's saves kept the margin to a single goal.
Vandevoordt guards the narrow lead
Gruda's 75th-minute winner was worth +1.2 FN xPts to Leipzig, while PSV's FN xPts fell by 0.8, the largest combined change of the match. Keeping it that way fell to Maarten Vandevoordt, whose saves preserved the clean sheet until full-time.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Brajan Gruda 8.5Dominant
He scored the only goal and put three of his four shots on target.
Most of Gruda's value came from attacking play. He won five of seven dribbles and created three chances, keeping pressure on PSV through a goalless spell. That persistence ended with the 75th-minute winner, his only goal-involvement of the night, before he made way for Rocco Reitz a minute later. A fitting FN MOM.
Game state
1-0
RB Leipzig ahead 15 min · level 75 min · PSV Eindhoven ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
19'
Ivan Perišić
Pen miss · RBL +0.5
−0.5
75'
Brajan Gruda
Goal · PSV −0.8
+1.2
RB Leipzig
Expected (last two seasons) 2.2Own moments +1.2Opponent moments +0.5Time effect −0.9→ League points won 3
PSV Eindhoven
Expected (no record yet, starting estimate) 0.6Own moments −0.5Opponent moments −0.8Time effect +0.7→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven
2.19Expected goals (xG)1.46
Compared with usual
RB Leipzig
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 3.1 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 2.19 | 2.4 | |
| xG against | 1.46 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 19 | 19.6 | |
| On target | 7 | 7.1 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 13.4 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 43% | 57.1% | |
| Passes | 348 | 538.6 | |
| Corners | 6 | 6.6 | |
| Fouls | 13 | 10.3 | |
Timeline
- 16'
VAR
Ruben van Bommel
- 19'
Pen miss
Ivan Perišić
- 43'
Yellow
Sergiño Dest
- 61'
Sub
Rômulo → Tidiam Gomis
- 75'
Goal
Brajan Gruda competition goal #1
- 76'
Sub
Brajan Gruda → Rocco Reitz
- 77'
Sub
Lutsharel Geertruida → Ryan Flamingo
- 77'
Sub
Filip Kostić → Yarek Gasiorowski
- 81'
VAR
David Raum
- 81'
Yellow
Antonio Nusa
- 84'
Sub
Ruben van Bommel → A. Santos
- 84'
Sub
Sven Mijnans → Mikkel Bro Hansen
- 85'
Yellow
Armando Obispo
- 86'
Sub
Ridle Baku → Nicolas Seiwald
- 86'
Sub
Ezechiel Banzuzi → Lukas Klostermann
Category leaders
- Key passesIvan Perišić4
- Duels wonRuben van Bommel9/17
- DribblesBrajan Gruda5/7
- Defensive actionsSergiño Dest5
- ShotsEzechiel Banzuzi4 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonMauro Júnior3
#RB Leipzig#PSV Eindhoven#Champions League#Brajan Gruda#Maarten Vandevoordt#Matěj Kovář
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.