AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid: a two-goal lead slips away late
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Three Real goals from the 83rd minute turned 3-1 into 4-3
- xG 1.51 v 1.89: Roma scored three, Real four
- Güler: two assists in 31 minutes off the bench
A two-goal lead undone late on
Roma spent about 39 minutes in front and led 3-1 after 57 minutes. Real Madrid answered with three late goals from the 83rd minute, and Antonio Rüdiger's strike in the 90th gave them a first lead and a 4-3 win.
Roma made the most of modest chances
Roma's xG of 1.51 was below their average over seven matches this season (2.3), yet they scored three. Donyell Malen hit the target with three of his four shots and scored twice, while Matías Soulé, preferred to Lorenzo Pellegrini in the starting line-up, set up two goals. Those modest chances were taken efficiently.
The bench supplied the comeback
Arda Güler, left out of the starting XI, came on in the 59th minute and set up both the 85th- and 90th-minute goals. Endrick, introduced at the same time, scored the equaliser, and Carlos Espí, who replaced Yan Diomande in the 78th minute, had pulled one back in the 83rd. Güler's two assists were the link.
Two late goals drained Roma's FN xPts
Counting both sides, Rüdiger's goal in the 90th minute was the biggest moment: +1.8 FN xPts for Real Madrid and −1.0 for Roma. Roma's FN xPts fell by 1.6 at the equaliser in the 85th minute, their largest single drop. Real's three goals conceded were their most in nine matches this season.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Yan Diomande 8.7Dominant
He won 13 of 18 duels, completed six of seven dribbles and set up Kylian Mbappé's goal.
Diomande's value came from winning the ball as much as carrying it: four interceptions and two tackles sat alongside his dribbling. His assist for Mbappé in the 25th minute levelled the match five minutes after Roma went ahead. Carlos Espí, who replaced him in the 78th minute, scored the first of Real's three late goals.
Game state
1-01-12-13-13-23-33-4
AS Roma ahead 39 min · level 51 min · Real Madrid ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
20'
Marten de Roon
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Matías Soulé +0.2 · RMA −0.6
+0.7
25'
Kylian Mbappé
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Yan Diomande +0.2 · ROM −0.7
+0.6
51'
Donyell Malen
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Rodrigo Mora +0.3 · RMA −0.7
+0.9
57'
Donyell Malen
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Matías Soulé +0.1 · RMA −0.3
+0.4
83'
Carlos Espí
Goal · ROM −0.2
+0.1
85'
Endrick
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Arda Güler +0.3 · ROM −1.6
+0.9
90'
Antonio Rüdiger
Goal · scorer +1.3 · assist Arda Güler +0.5 · ROM −1.0
+1.8
AS Roma
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +2.0Opponent moments −3.5Time effect −0.2→ League points won 0
Real Madrid
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +3.4Opponent moments −1.6Time effect +0.2→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
AS RomaReal Madrid
1.51Expected goals (xG)1.89
Compared with usual
AS Roma
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0.57 | |
| xG | 1.51 | 2.3 | |
| xG against | 1.89 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 14 | 17.1 | |
| On target | 7 | 5.7 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 10.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.11 | 0.14 | |
| Possession | 54% | 54.3% | |
| Passes | 546 | 527.7 | |
| Corners | 5 | 4.9 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 13.3 | |
Real Madrid
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2.3 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | high |
| xG | 1.89 | 2.4 | |
| xG against | 1.51 | 1 | |
| Shots | 16 | 17.7 | |
| On target | 8 | 7.2 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 13.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 46% | 49.9% | |
| Passes | 458 | 493.4 | |
| Corners | 9 | 6.8 | |
| Fouls | 8 | 8.8 | |
Timeline
- 17'
Sub
Manu Koné → Niccolò Pisilli
- 20'
Goal
Marten de Roon competition goal #1 assist Matías Soulé
- 25'
Goal
Kylian Mbappé competition goal #2 assist Yan Diomande
- 45'
Sub
Paulo Dybala → Rodrigo Mora
- 51'
Goal
Donyell Malen competition goal #1 assist Rodrigo Mora
- 57'
Goal
Donyell Malen competition goal #2 assist Matías Soulé
- 58'
VAR
Donyell Malen
- 59'
Sub
Vinícius Júnior → Endrick
- 59'
Sub
Denzel Dumfries → Arda Güler
- 60'
Yellow
Gianluca Mancini
- 63'
Sub
Matías Soulé → Lorenzo Pellegrini
- 63'
Sub
Gianluca Mancini → Leonardo Balerdi
- 69'
Yellow
Wesley
- 70'
Sub
Aurélien Tchouaméni → Bernardo Silva
- 78'
Sub
Marc Cucurella → Álvaro Fernández
- 78'
Sub
Yan Diomande → Carlos Espí
- 81'
Sub
Hermoso → Konstantinos Koulierakis
- 83'
Goal
Carlos Espí competition goal #1
- 83'
VAR
Carlos Espí
- 85'
Goal
Endrick competition goal #1 assist Arda Güler
- 89'
Yellow
Lorenzo Pellegrini
- 90'
Goal
Antonio Rüdiger competition goal #1 assist Arda Güler
- 90+5'
Yellow
Álvaro Fernández
Category leaders
- Key passesMatías Soulé3
- Duels wonYan Diomande13/18
- DribblesYan Diomande6/7
- Defensive actionsWesley8
- ShotsDonyell Malen4 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonJude Bellingham5
#Champions League#AS Roma#Real Madrid#Yan Diomande#Donyell Malen#Arda Güler
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.