Schalke 0-1 Mainz: Tietz strikes once, Posch-led defence holds
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.53 v 0.33: Mainz had the better chances
- 20 fouls v a 12.2 average over six matches
- Karius made five saves, but Schalke still lost
Mainz win with fewer goals than usual
Mainz won at Schalke thanks to one goal: Phillip Tietz finished in the 24th minute after a pass from Anthony Caci. It was well below the 3.7 goals they have averaged across six matches this season, but it was enough to take all three points from the VELTINS-Arena.
Similar shot counts, very different threat
Shot volume was close, but the danger was not. Mainz averaged 0.14 xG per shot against Schalke's 0.04, which was also below Schalke's own season average. Four of the hosts' attempts were blocked, a pattern that fits with a low-value return from plenty of efforts.
A lead protected rather than extended
Mainz committed 20 fouls, well above this season's six-match average of 12.2, which suggests they were happy to break up play once in front. Stefan Posch, the FN MOM, made more defensive actions than anyone on the pitch, and Alexander Schwolow kept the clean sheet behind him.
The goal that tilted the expected points
Tietz's goal in the 24th minute was worth +0.7 FN xPts to Mainz, while Schalke's FN xPts fell by 0.6, the largest combined movement of the match. Schalke used all their substitutes without finding an equaliser, and the saves of Loris Karius only kept the deficit at one.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Stefan Posch 7.5Strong
He made four interceptions and three tackles, more defensive actions than anyone else on the pitch.
Stefan Posch did his most important work at the back. Mainz spent roughly 66 minutes protecting a one-goal lead, and his recoveries helped keep Schalke's shots to low-value efforts. He also completed 59 of his 73 passes, so those interventions often turned into a calm restart rather than a scramble.
Game state
0-1
FC Schalke 04 ahead 0 min · level 24 min · FSV Mainz 05 ahead 66 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
24'
Phillip Tietz
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Anthony Caci +0.2 · S04 −0.6
+0.7
FC Schalke 04
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.6Time effect −0.4→ League points won 0
FSV Mainz 05
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +0.7Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.6→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05
0.33Expected goals (xG)1.53
Compared with usual
FC Schalke 04
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 1.5 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 0.33 | 1.2 | |
| xG against | 1.53 | 1.9 | |
| Shots | 9 | 13 | |
| On target | 3 | 5 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 15 | |
| xG per shot | 0.04 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 46% | 44.5% | |
| Passes | 388 | 419.8 | |
| Corners | 4 | 3.8 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 9.2 | |
FSV Mainz 05
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 3.7 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.53 | 2.4 | |
| xG against | 0.33 | 1.6 | |
| Shots | 11 | 21 | |
| On target | 6 | 7 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 12.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 54% | 53.7% | |
| Passes | 467 | 471.2 | |
| Corners | 1 | 6.2 | |
| Fouls | 20 | 12.2 | |
Timeline
- 24'
Goal
Phillip Tietz league goal #5 assist Anthony Caci
- 42'
Yellow
Nadiem Amiri
- 45'
Yellow
Kaishu Sano
- 60'
Sub
A. Gantenbein → Junior Dina Ebimbe
- 60'
Sub
Edin Džeko → Hwang Hee-Chan
- 71'
Sub
Adil Aouchiche → Junior Adamu
- 71'
Sub
Nikola Katić → Maximilian Wöber
- 76'
Sub
Lee Jae-Sung → Paul Nebel
- 76'
Sub
Sheraldo Becker → Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer
- 79'
Sub
Robin Gosens → Vitalie Becker
- 86'
Sub
Nadiem Amiri → Eric Martel
- 90+1'
Sub
Phillip Tietz → Lennard Maloney
- 90+1'
Sub
Anthony Caci → Silvan Widmer
Category leaders
- Key passesKaishu Sano2
- Duels wonPhillip Tietz11/22
- DribblesSheraldo Becker2/4
- Defensive actionsStefan Posch7
- ShotsSheraldo Becker4 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonAdil Aouchiche4
#Schalke#Mainz#Bundesliga#Phillip Tietz#Stefan Posch#Lee Jae-Sung
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.