Hamburg 1-0 Stuttgart: Muheim breaks a deadlock in the 88th minute
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Stuttgart's 24 shots: most in eight matches this season
- xG 1.46 v 1.73, yet the scoreline was 1-0
- Daniel Heuer Fernandes made five saves for the clean sheet
Level for nearly the whole match
Hamburg beat Stuttgart 1-0 at the Volksparkstadion, and the match stayed level until very late. They led for only about two minutes, because everything before Miro Muheim's goal in the 88th minute was a draw. A single late goal was all that separated the sides, in a match where Stuttgart had 66% of the ball.
Plenty of shots, little quality for Stuttgart
Stuttgart's 24 shots were their most in eight matches this season. Quality did not keep pace, with xG per shot at 0.07, below their average for the campaign. That suggests volume rather than clear chances. Deniz Undav took more shots than anyone else on the pitch, yet Stuttgart still went home without a goal.
Hamburg's goalkeeper kept the match level
Hamburg's possession of 34% was below their average across six matches this season, so they spent long spells without the ball. Daniel Heuer Fernandes made five saves to protect the clean sheet. Martin Adeline recorded more defensive actions, through tackles and an interception, than any other player on the pitch.
Late goal turns a level match
Substitute Zakaria El Ouahdi supplied the pass for Muheim's goal. It was worth +1.7 FN xPts to Hamburg, while Stuttgart's FN xPts fell by 1.0, the largest change of the match for the two sides combined. El Ouahdi's assist turned a draw into a lead that Hamburg held to full-time, and it was Muheim's second Bundesliga goal of the season.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Miro Muheim 8.0Dominant
He scored the only goal, created four chances and won four of seven duels.
Muheim earned most of his credit in attack: four key passes and a goal from his only shot, which was also his only effort on target. Hamburg were level for about 88 minutes, so a player who kept creating and then finished the one chance that mattered gave the side its only goal.
Game state
1-0
Hamburger SV ahead 2 min · level 88 min · VfB Stuttgart ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
88'
Miro Muheim
Goal · scorer +1.2 · assist Zakaria El Ouahdi +0.5 · VFB −1.0
+1.7
Hamburger SV
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +1.7Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.2→ League points won 3
VfB Stuttgart
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.6→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
1.46Expected goals (xG)1.73
Compared with usual
Hamburger SV
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2.5 | |
| xG | 1.46 | 0.96 | |
| xG against | 1.73 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 14 | 10.3 | |
| On target | 3 | 4.2 | |
| Shots faced | 24 | 17.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.1 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 34% | 41% | |
| Passes | 314 | 366.2 | |
| Corners | 5 | 3.2 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 14 | |
VfB Stuttgart
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 1.73 | 1.9 | |
| xG against | 1.46 | 2.3 | |
| Shots | 24 | 16.6 | high |
| On target | 5 | 6.1 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 16 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 66% | 57.8% | |
| Passes | 626 | 553.9 | |
| Corners | 9 | 6.4 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 10.4 | |
Timeline
- 54'
Yellow
Warmed Omari
- 61'
Sub
Yussuf Poulsen → Otto Emerson Stange
- 67'
Sub
Atakan Karazor → Grischa Prömel
- 67'
Sub
Bilal El Khannouss → Chris Führich
- 77'
Sub
Ermedin Demirović → Dženan Pejčinović
- 77'
Sub
Jamie Leweling → Leo Sauer
- 78'
Sub
Martin Adeline → Albert Grønbæk
- 78'
Sub
Fábio Vieira → Terem Moffi
- 78'
Sub
Louis Lemke → Zakaria El Ouahdi
- 82'
Yellow
Nicolás Capaldo
- 84'
Sub
Bilal Nadir → Kofi Jeremy Amoako
- 85'
Yellow
Otto Emerson Stange
- 88'
Goal
Miro Muheim league goal #2 assist Zakaria El Ouahdi
- 89'
Sub
Ramon Hendriks → Lorenz Assignon
Category leaders
- Key passesBilal El Khannouss5
- Duels wonJeff Chabot10/16
- DribblesJamie Leweling4/7
- Defensive actionsMartin Adeline6
- ShotsDeniz Undav7 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonFinn Jeltsch3
#Hamburg#Stuttgart#Bundesliga#Miro Muheim#Zakaria El Ouahdi#Daniel Heuer Fernandes
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.