Elversberg 4-3 Augsburg: early lead survives a late scare
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 3.68 v 3.61: near-identical chances
- 40% possession, yet 4-3 winners
- Augsburg: 29 shots, only 8 on target
Chances well above Elversberg's norm
Elversberg went in front in the fourth minute and stayed ahead until the end, even though Augsburg had more of the ball. Their xG of 3.68 was well above anything they had managed in their six matches this season, where the highest was 2.31. They created far more than usual while having less possession.
Petkov answers his own penalty miss
Lukas Petkov missed a penalty in the fourth minute and scored within the same minute. That goal was worth +0.6 FN xPts to Elversberg, while Augsburg's FN xPts fell by 0.6, the largest combined change of the match. Lasse Günther and Maximilian Rohr added two more before the half-hour.
Augsburg's volume met a lower xG per shot
Augsburg had far more of the ball than their average over six matches this season, and they had 29 shots. Yet their xG per shot was 0.12, below Elversberg's, and a smaller share of their efforts hit the target. That suggests the gap lay in shot quality rather than in the number of attempts.
A one-goal margin held to the end
Frederik Schmahl made it four late on, his first Bundesliga goal of the season, and Mert Kömür replied in the 90th minute, set up by Hennes Behrens. Nicolas Kristof finished with five saves. Noel Futkeu then missed a penalty in stoppage time, but Elversberg's one-goal lead survived.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Hennes Behrens 8.5Dominant
He won 12 of 20 duels and set up Mert Kömür's goal for Augsburg in a 4-3 defeat.
Behrens' case as FN MOM rests on his attacking work: six key passes and the assist for Kömür's goal in the 90th minute, which made it 4-3. He was also fouled seven times and made four tackles, so he contributed in both phases even though Augsburg lost.
Game state
1-02-03-03-13-24-24-3
SV Elversberg ahead 86 min · level 4 min · FC Augsburg ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
4'
Lukas Petkov
Pen miss · FCA +0.4
−0.5
4'
Lukas Petkov
Goal · FCA −0.6
+0.6
7'
Lasse Günther
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Maurice Krattenmacher +0.2 · FCA −0.4
+0.5
28'
Maximilian Rohr
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Felix Keidel +0.1 · FCA −0.2
+0.3
45+9'
Fabian Rieder
Pen goal · SVE −0.2
+0.2
76'
Michael Gregoritsch
Pen goal · SVE −0.5
+0.3
89'
Frederik Schmahl
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Lukas Petkov +0.1 · FCA −0.2
+0.3
90'
Mert Kömür
Goal · assist Hennes Behrens · SVE −0.3
+0.1
90+8'
Noel Futkeu
Pen miss · FCA 0.0
0.0
SV Elversberg
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +1.2Opponent moments −1.0Time effect +1.5→ League points won 3
FC Augsburg
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +0.6Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −1.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
SV ElversbergFC Augsburg
3.68Expected goals (xG)3.61
Compared with usual
SV Elversberg
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1.8 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.5 | |
| xG | 3.68 | 1.2 | |
| xG against | 3.61 | 1.9 | |
| Shots | 19 | 10.5 | |
| On target | 8 | 4.3 | |
| Shots faced | 29 | 19.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.19 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 40% | 47.8% | |
| Passes | 323 | 416.7 | |
| Corners | 4 | 3.5 | |
| Fouls | 16 | 10.7 | |
FC Augsburg
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2.5 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 3.61 | 1.9 | |
| xG against | 3.68 | 3 | |
| Shots | 29 | 14.7 | |
| On target | 8 | 6.8 | |
| Shots faced | 19 | 22.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.15 | |
| Possession | 60% | 38.2% | |
| Passes | 461 | 340.3 | |
| Corners | 12 | 5 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 9.8 | |
Timeline
- 2'
VAR
Lasse Günther
- 4'
Pen miss
Lukas Petkov
- 4'
Goal
Lukas Petkov league goal #2
- 7'
Goal
Lasse Günther league goal #1 assist Maurice Krattenmacher
- 28'
Goal
Maximilian Rohr league goal #1 assist Felix Keidel
- 30'
Yellow
Han-Noah Massengo
- 30'
Yellow
Rodrigo Ribeiro
- 40'
Sub
Jan Gyamerah → Luca Sirch
- 40'
Sub
Noah Darvich → Frederik Schmahl
- 45'
Sub
Marius Wolf → Anton Kade
- 45'
Sub
Rodrigo Ribeiro → Michael Gregoritsch
- 45'
Sub
Abdulay Bah → Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
- 45+8'
VAR
Marius Wolf
- 45+9'
Goal
Fabian Rieder (pen) league goal #2
- 52'
Yellow
Chrislain Matsima
- 54'
Yellow
Felix Keidel
- 74'
Sub
Arijon Ibrahimović → Mert Kömür
- 74'
Sub
Robin Fellhauer → Seol Young-Woo
- 75'
Yellow
Lukas Finn Pinckert
- 76'
Goal
Michael Gregoritsch (pen) league goal #4
- 77'
Sub
David Mokwa → Noel Futkeu
- 78'
Sub
Maurice Krattenmacher → R. Adam
- 79'
VAR
R. Adam
- 84'
Yellow
Nicolas Kristof
- 87'
VAR
Michael Gregoritsch
- 89'
Goal
Frederik Schmahl league goal #1 assist Lukas Petkov
- 90'
Goal
Mert Kömür league goal #1 assist Hennes Behrens
- 90+3'
Sub
Felix Keidel → Amara Condé
- 90+6'
Yellow
Frederik Schmahl
- 90+8'
Pen miss
Noel Futkeu
Category leaders
- Key passesHennes Behrens6
- Duels wonHennes Behrens12/20
- DribblesLukas Petkov4/7
- Defensive actionsLasse Günther9
- ShotsMarius Wolf4 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonHennes Behrens7
#Elversberg#Augsburg#Bundesliga#Hennes Behrens#Lukas Petkov#Frederik Schmahl
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.