Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves: eight Radu saves outweigh 20 shots
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 20 shots v 6: Alaves had the volume
- xG per shot 0.15 v 0.05: Celta more efficient
- Radu: 8 saves from 9 shots on target
Two second-half goals settle it
Celta Vigo beat Alaves 2-1 at Balaídos after a goalless first half. Ferran Jutglà broke the deadlock soon after the restart, and Javi Rodríguez doubled the lead later in the half. Two second-half goals were enough, even after Hugo Novoa pulled one back late on, and Celta held on to the end.
Volume for Alaves, efficiency for Celta
Alaves took 20 shots, a high for the season so far. But their xG per shot was just 0.05, below their usual level, which suggests plenty of volume without much quality. Celta's far fewer attempts averaged 0.15 each, a reminder that where a side shoots from matters as much as how often.
Radu meets a season-high on-target count
Alaves' nine shots on target were also their most this season, and Ionuț Radu saved eight of them. Celta did not win a single corner, their lowest of the campaign, yet they outperformed their xG by 1.09. A goalkeeper in form and a side clinical with limited chances made for a win that the shot count alone would not predict.
A goal that tilted a level match
The goal in the 53rd minute was worth +1.0 FN xPts to Celta, while Alaves' FN xPts change was −0.8. It turned a level game into a lead, which is why it was the largest combined change of the match. The second goal and Novoa's late reply moved the figures far less.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Javi Rodríguez 8.8Dominant
A goal and an assist, with 55 of 66 passes completed from defence.
Most of his value came from attacking output: he set up Jutglà's opener in the 53rd minute and scored the second in the 71st, so he was involved in both goals Celta needed to stay ahead of Novoa's late reply. He also won five of seven duels and drew three fouls, work that kept him useful at the back as well.
Game state
1-02-02-1
Celta Vigo ahead 37 min · level 53 min · Alaves ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
53'
Ferran Jutglà
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Javi Rodríguez +0.3 · ALA −0.8
+1.0
71'
Javi Rodríguez
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Iago Aspas +0.1 · ALA −0.2
+0.4
87'
Hugo Novoa
Goal · assist Mariano Díaz · CEL −0.2
+0.1
Celta Vigo
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +1.4Opponent moments −0.2Time effect +0.2→ League points won 3
Alaves
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +0.1Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.2→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Celta VigoAlaves
0.91Expected goals (xG)1.05
Compared with usual
Celta Vigo
10 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0.9 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0.9 | |
| xG | 0.91 | 0.97 | |
| xG against | 1.05 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 6 | 10.7 | |
| On target | 3 | 3.3 | |
| Shots faced | 20 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.08 | |
| Possession | 48% | 50.3% | |
| Passes | 465 | 514.2 | |
| Corners | 0 | 3.7 | low |
| Fouls | 14 | 12.3 | |
Alaves
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1 | |
| xG | 1.05 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 0.91 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 20 | 11.9 | high |
| On target | 9 | 4.3 | high |
| Shots faced | 6 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.05 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 52% | 40.9% | |
| Passes | 491 | 322.5 | high |
| Corners | 4 | 3.8 | |
| Fouls | 17 | 13.3 | |
Timeline
- 15'
Yellow
Sebastián Cáceres
- 45'
Yellow
Toni Martínez
- 45'
Sub
Ilaix Moriba → Aleix Febas
- 45'
Sub
Williot Swedberg → Javi Rueda
- 53'
Goal
Ferran Jutglà league goal #2 assist Javi Rodríguez
- 62'
Sub
Jonny → Hugo Novoa
- 62'
Sub
Toni Martínez → Mariano Díaz
- 62'
Sub
Carles Aleñá → Denis Suárez
- 70'
Sub
Couhaib Driouech → Iago Aspas
- 70'
Sub
Hugo Burcio → Andrés Antañón
- 71'
Goal
Javi Rodríguez league goal #1 assist Iago Aspas
- 77'
Sub
Sebastián Cáceres → Marcos Alonso
- 87'
Goal
Hugo Novoa league goal #1 assist Mariano Díaz
- 88'
Sub
Abderrahman Rebbach → Aitor Mañas
- 88'
Sub
Antonio Blanco → Guevara
Category leaders
- Key passesPablo Ibáñez3
- Duels wonSebastián Cáceres8/11
- DribblesFerran Jutglà2/2
- Defensive actionsSebastián Cáceres5
- ShotsLucas Boyé4 (on target 3)
- Fouls wonPablo Ibáñez5
#Celta Vigo#Alaves#La Liga#Javi Rodríguez#Ionuț Radu#FN Score
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.