Strasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint-Germain: three late goals flip it
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 8 shots on target v a 4.5 average over six matches
- Safonov made 7 saves and conceded once
- 85': Dembélé's goal worth +1.6 FN xPts
The side in front were the ones who lost
Strasbourg went ahead through Giovanni Reyna in the 17th minute and stayed in front for about 60 minutes, only for Paris Saint-Germain to turn the match around late on. Luis Enrique made eight changes to his starting line-up, and Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué, both left on the bench at the start, each had a hand in the goals after coming on. Paris Saint-Germain rallied late.
More shots on target than usual
Strasbourg barely had the ball, but they still found eight shots on target. In their previous six matches this season they had averaged 4.5. Their xG per shot was close to their usual level, which suggests volume rather than quality lay behind the increase.
Safonov kept Paris Saint-Germain within reach
Paris Saint-Germain's shots averaged 0.15 xG, above their mean from the previous eight matches this season. For a long time those chances did not go in, and Matvey Safonov made seven saves to hold the damage to a single goal, which meant his side needed only one to draw level.
Dembélé answers for the penalty miss
Dembélé missed a penalty, then set up Illia Zabarnyi's equaliser and scored the second goal himself in the 85th minute. That goal was worth +1.6 FN xPts, while Strasbourg's FN xPts was −0.9, the largest combined change of the match. Doué, set up by Ferran Torres, added a third deep into stoppage time. Dembélé's goal put PSG ahead for good.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Illia Zabarnyi 8.2Dominant
The defender scored the 77th-minute equaliser, his first Ligue 1 goal of the season.
Zabarnyi, the FN MOM, wiped out a lead Strasbourg had held since the 17th minute. His goal was worth +1.0 FN xPts to Paris Saint-Germain and −1.4 to Strasbourg. He also carried the build-up from the back, completing 98 of 103 passes, so his FN Score came from both attack and construction.
Game state
1-01-11-21-3
Strasbourg ahead 60 min · level 25 min · Paris Saint Germain ahead 5 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
17'
Giovanni Reyna
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Gessime Yassine +0.2 · PSG −0.7
+0.7
72'
Ousmane Dembélé
Pen miss · RCS +0.9
−0.7
77'
Illia Zabarnyi
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Ousmane Dembélé +0.3 · RCS −1.4
+1.0
85'
Ousmane Dembélé
Goal · RCS −0.9
+1.6
90+3'
Désiré Doué
Goal · assist Ferran Torres · RCS 0.0
0.0
Strasbourg
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −1.4Time effect −0.3→ League points won 0
Paris Saint Germain
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +1.9Opponent moments −0.7Time effect +0.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
1.05Expected goals (xG)2.68
Compared with usual
Strasbourg
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | |
| xG | 1.05 | 1.1 | |
| xG against | 2.68 | 1.9 | |
| Shots | 16 | 11.5 | |
| On target | 8 | 4.5 | |
| Shots faced | 18 | 16.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.08 | |
| Possession | 27% | 48% | |
| Passes | 246 | 469.2 | |
| Corners | 3 | 2 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 11.2 | |
Paris Saint Germain
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2.6 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 2.68 | 2.2 | |
| xG against | 1.05 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 18 | 22.3 | |
| On target | 7 | 8.5 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 12.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 73% | 65% | |
| Passes | 675 | 681.9 | |
| Corners | 6 | 5.4 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 6.8 | |
Timeline
- 17'
Goal
Giovanni Reyna league goal #2 assist Gessime Yassine
- 53'
Sub
Lucas Digne → Nuno Mendes
- 54'
Sub
Pedro Fernández → Désiré Doué
- 54'
Sub
Beraldo → Vitinha
- 60'
Sub
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé → Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
- 63'
Sub
João Neves → Achraf Hakimi
- 63'
Sub
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia → Ousmane Dembélé
- 70'
VAR
Désiré Doué
- 72'
Pen miss
Ousmane Dembélé
- 75'
Sub
Pape Diop → Samir El Mourabet
- 76'
Yellow
Conrad Harder
- 77'
Goal
Illia Zabarnyi league goal #1 assist Ousmane Dembélé
- 78'
Yellow
Dário Essugo
- 83'
Sub
Gessime Yassine → Yaya Dieme
- 83'
Sub
Conrad Harder → Jacobo Ortega
- 85'
Goal
Ousmane Dembélé league goal #1
- 90+3'
Goal
Désiré Doué league goal #1 assist Ferran Torres
Category leaders
- Key passesVitinha3
- Duels wonPedro Fernández6/7
- DribblesKhvicha Kvaratskhelia2/4
- Defensive actionsDário Essugo6
- ShotsDésiré Doué4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonOso3
#Ligue 1#Strasbourg#Paris Saint-Germain#Illia Zabarnyi#Ousmane Dembélé#Désiré Doué
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.