AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta: Adrien Rabiot drives a three-goal lead
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 2.53 v 1.71: Milan's chances were better
- Just 3 fouls, Milan's lowest in eight matches
- Ahead for 66 of 90 minutes
Milan race clear, then hold on
AC Milan raced into a three-goal lead and then had to survive two Atalanta goals after the break to win 3-2. They were ahead for 66 of the 90 minutes, but a one-goal margin was all they had left once Nikola Krstović scored.
Fewer shots, better ones
Atalanta had the greater number of shots, but Milan's were worth considerably more: 0.23 xG per shot, against an average of 0.13 over their eight matches this season. Quality over quantity left Milan ahead on xG as well. Atalanta's own xG per shot was also above their season norm, so this was no easy evening.
Rabiot covers both ends of the pitch
Adrien Rabiot scored in the 43rd minute and set up Mario Gila's goal in the 57th, stretching Milan's lead each time. He led the match in key passes, duels won and defensive actions. The goal was his fourth in the league this season.
Two first-half goals did the heavy lifting
Gonçalo Ramos's first-half penalty was worth +0.8 FN xPts to Milan, while Atalanta's FN xPts fell by −0.8, the largest change of the match. Ramos, Diego Moreira and Gila were all among Milan's seven changes to the starting XI, and all three featured in goals. Atalanta's two second-half goals moved the FN xPts far less.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Adrien Rabiot 8.9Dominant
One goal, one assist, four key passes and six tackles.
Attack was where Rabiot earned most, with three shots and four key passes placing him at the heart of Milan's best moments. He also won eight of his ten duels, a strong return in midfield. His goal in the 43rd minute and assist in the 57th built a 3-0 lead, enough cushion to withstand Atalanta's two second-half goals.
Game state
1-02-03-03-13-2
AC Milan ahead 66 min · level 24 min · Atalanta ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
24'
Gonçalo Ramos
Pen goal · ATA −0.8
+0.8
43'
Adrien Rabiot
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Diego Moreira +0.2 · ATA −0.4
+0.6
57'
Gonçalo Ramos
Pen miss · ATA +0.1
−0.1
57'
Mario Gila
Goal · assist Adrien Rabiot · ATA −0.1
+0.2
66'
Gianluca Gaetano
Goal · assist Nicola Zalewski · MIL −0.1
+0.1
81'
Nikola Krstović
Goal · assist Raoul Bellanova · MIL −0.3
+0.2
AC Milan
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +1.5Opponent moments −0.4Time effect +0.8→ League points won 3
Atalanta
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +0.3Opponent moments −1.2Time effect −0.7→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
AC MilanAtalanta
2.53Expected goals (xG)1.71
Compared with usual
AC Milan
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0.88 | |
| xG | 2.53 | 1.8 | |
| xG against | 1.71 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 11 | 13.4 | |
| On target | 6 | 5.1 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 10 | |
| xG per shot | 0.23 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 56% | 58.8% | |
| Passes | 601 | 565.1 | |
| Corners | 2 | 3.9 | |
| Fouls | 3 | 10.9 | low |
Atalanta
6 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 1.71 | 1 | |
| xG against | 2.53 | 2 | |
| Shots | 12 | 13.5 | |
| On target | 4 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 19.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.07 | |
| Possession | 44% | 46% | |
| Passes | 464 | 483.5 | |
| Corners | 2 | 3.7 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 10.3 | |
Timeline
- 13'
VAR
Christian Pulisic
- 20'
Sub
Sead Kolašinac → Relja Obrić
- 22'
VAR
Yunus Musah
- 24'
Goal
Gonçalo Ramos (pen) league goal #2
- 41'
Yellow
Adrien Rabiot
- 43'
Goal
Adrien Rabiot league goal #4 assist Diego Moreira
- 53'
Sub
Samuel Chukwueze → Omari Hutchinson
- 55'
VAR
Adrien Rabiot
- 57'
Pen miss
Gonçalo Ramos
- 57'
Goal
Mario Gila league goal #1 assist Adrien Rabiot
- 59'
Sub
Mario Pasalic → Gianluca Gaetano
- 59'
Sub
Jonathan Rowe → Nicola Zalewski
- 66'
Goal
Gianluca Gaetano league goal #1 assist Nicola Zalewski
- 68'
Yellow
Éderson
- 75'
Sub
Lazar Samardžić → Gianluca Scamacca
- 75'
Sub
Lorenzo Bernasconi → Davide Zappacosta
- 75'
Sub
Christian Pulisic → Ardon Jashari
- 75'
Sub
Yunus Musah → Pervis Estupiñán
- 75'
Sub
Luka Modrić → Ruben Loftus-Cheek
- 78'
Yellow
Relja Obrić
- 81'
Goal
Nikola Krstović league goal #4 assist Raoul Bellanova
- 84'
Sub
Mario Gila → Fikayo Tomori
Category leaders
- Key passesAdrien Rabiot4
- Duels wonAdrien Rabiot8/10
- DribblesDiego Moreira2/6
- Defensive actionsAdrien Rabiot7
- ShotsNikola Krstović4 (on target 1)
#AC Milan#Atalanta#Serie A#Adrien Rabiot#Gonçalo Ramos#Nikola Krstović
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.